Happy New Year

This site is all about making money, it has been a hard year for just about every investment but not as bad as 2009 or 2008. I think it is more fear of a drop in markets. REIT stocks did OK considering all the worries about the SEC and refinancing possibilities. It turns ut the SEC will not change anything( see the previous post) and silver is about where it was last year at this time with a lot of people sitting on $40 or more silver. I think it will go back up. I do believe the second half of 2012 will be very prosperous but in the mean time lets forget about all of it for a while.  Video :

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SEC and REITs

The SEC sent out a letter official from the SEC about REITs. It points out that REITs have been a way for the common man to invest in real estate for 60 years. I think it indicates that the REIT structure will not under go any of the bad changes that were feared this fall. Here is a quote from the beginning of the document: 

"Real estate investment trusts ("REITs") have been around for more than fifty years. Congress established REITs in 1960 to allow individual investors to invest in large-scale, income-producing real estate. REITs provide a way for individual investors to earn a share of the income produced through commercial real estate ownership – without actually having to go out and buy commercial real estate. What is a REIT? ..."
Silver is rebounding from the drop a day ago. At 9:55 it is $28.15  Gold is $1571.80. Silver was down to around 26.20.  The silver bull is not over.

Silver is down in Asian markets

9:39pm $28.73
The silver bull market is not over. There will be inflation in 2013 and 2014.  Stocks will be good in 2012. I do believe silver will bottom out in a week or 2 and begin the climb back up. Now is a good time to start buying silver bullion. It could drop down to the low 20s but it will not stay there long.  Silver should be bought with money that will not be needed for 3 years. Be careful of the fake Chinese silver and gold-- see my other posts.

2012 nickels and pennies likely to be steel

Yesterday bills were entered into the House of representatives to change the metals of the penny and nickel to steel. Nickels cost over 9 cents to make and the metal is worth about 5.1 cents a coin currently and this is with depressed commodities prices. I do not think it will be long until you have to start looking through the nickels to get the good ones. Hay at least the Chinese aren't counterfeiting these! See yesterdays post about the fake silver from China.

Do not buy sterling on Ebay

China is flooding America with sterling jewelry stamped .925. it is plated. it comes from Hong Kong but some sellers are using American addresses. They claim it is tested and genuine but it is only plated. The Chinese are also flooding the market with fake silver coins and bars and fake gold. Beware of coins and jewelry in pawn shops and discount stores as well. I recommend buying silver dimes because they aren't counterfeited yet. Have your silver acid tested if you do buy and make a big fuss about it if you find it is fake.

AGNC declares and Federal Reserve and Gold

Yesterday after hours AGNC declared $1.40 dividend.

Ron Paul questions the Federal Reserve about gold; this is an interesting video:
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IVR declares dividend-- bad news

IVR declared a $.65 dividend at 3:17pm today.   It was previously $.80.  Aftermarket shares dropped 5.97% to $14.80 on top of the 2.18% loss they had during trade hours today.  This is a 7.37% drop total if it opens at this price tomorrow.  Their earnings were $.79 per share, Im not sure why they didnt declare a higher dividend but this has been a tough year for IVR and CIM.

I do think silver could drop more yet possibly into the mid $20s. The dollar is expected to get stronger.

Silver sales are down in November

here is a link to the article:  http://news.coinupdate.com/american-gold-and-silver-eagle-bullion-sales-plunge-1089/
The dollar index is expected to go up now which may make silver and gold prices go down. When business picks up later next year silver and platinum could go up again because they are industrial metals as well as monetary metals. Gold could go down more than silver as a result.

No major news on REIT stock, interest rates are down so they should do well.  CIM has had some insider buys.

Christian missionaries playing stoupid games

Christians from outside of India are stirring up trouble using immoral practices.  Here is a link to the article.  http://www.hindujagruti.org/news/12683.html Do not give to missionaries sending money overseas for Christmas, the money is used to entice children away from their native religion to Christianity. I  am concerned Christian missionaries will start a civil war in India, they teach people scandalous and untrue things about native Hindu religion. The government seems to look the other way. See my page on missionaries explaining what has been happening in India and other countries.  Some Churches are sending shoe boxes to Africa and possibly India, this is to entice children away from their culture and religion with candy and toys.  This is wrong and very damaging to christianity.  Christians are using the ends justify the means, they will get quick but not lasting results and will cause resentment and many will die in violence that it causes. Do we really want to cause a war between Moslems and christians in Africa or between hindus and Christians in Asia-- we already have enough problems caused by polyticians, we dont need the Churches throwing gas on the fire!

Billionaire Sprott

He asks silver producers to keep money in silver instead of the bank. This would be less risky. Banks are paying next to nothing in interest plus banks can go under. He is also the one who came up with PSLV the silver Etf backed completely by silver bullion. Here is a link to the article:
http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2011/11/25_Billionaire_Eric_Sprott_Asking_Silver_Producers_to_Save_in_Silver.html
The people who run SLV have been known to short silver at their own risk. Of course if they get caught they probably figure Uncle Sam will bail them out.

Be aware of fake silver

China is flooding the market with fake silver dollar coins and even fake silver bars. they have not started doing the dimes yet. Many are being sold on Ebay and pawn shops so be careful where you buy silver. Also know your weights, bars are being sold that have only a tiny fraction of the silver in them but they look like regular bars.Even coin dealers are being fooled by the counterfeit coins. One way to prevent a catastrophic loss is not buy really large lots of silver in one place, also getting dimes would work as well.Here is a link to an article on the subject:  http://www.shtfplan.com/precious-metals/chinese-counterfeiters-flood-global-markets-with-fake-silver-and-gold-100000-coins-from-a-single-counterfeiter_11102011

Neodymatic slide, how to tell fakes from real silver dollars. Some fakes are slightly magnetic and some are not.    <iframe width="960" height="720" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/3gUjuS5TzwI" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

<iframe width="1280" height="720" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/NgSXg-WOEVY" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>   (slide strong magnet down silver bar)

Silver and Gold

J.P. Morgan or JPM is the custodian of SLV the etf and HSB bank is the custodian of the etf GLD. Both of these companies are accused of shorting silver and gold. Some are concerned about statements in the etf prospectus and the safty of the etf.  There will be a Sprott silver fund coming out with better conditions, it is recommended to sell the SLV and buy the Sprott silver fund. Some etf s are better allocated than others-- it is best for the fund to hold silver bars in their possession to back all of the etf.
    Metals and maybe markets may back off some this week which is another chance to buy into the metals markets. Stock markets should be profitable for the rest of the year. The European debt crisis is not solved.

US mint / Euro

The US mint started selling the 25thth Anniversary  silver Eagle set today for $299.95 for the 5 coin set. It completely sold out by 3:30 pm. The website went to a slow crawl. They are completely out of the 100,000 sets -- there will only be 100,000 coin sets made.  Who said there is a low silver demand? Silver is over $35 at close today. The US mint put a limit of 5 sets to be bought by any household so no one can get more than 5 , period.  Goldmart.com is offering  $400 for each unopened set and APMEX is offering $425.  They are also pre-selling them on Ebay.com for around $440 or more.
     The Euro will crash by 2016, temporarily it is fixed at least for a few days. The European Union is doomed to fall apart.

AGNC

AGNC has $1.39 per share earnings and after hours makes secondary offering. Silver is 33.55 at midnight.

Silver position limits

The CFTC  is imposing silver position limits and also short limits.  Some large holders may have to sell plus some shorts may have to buy. Greec's debt may be higher than what we previously believed so there may be a rough week for stocks. Silver is already down some, we could see a drop in price but also some volatility in both directions. REIT stocks are quiet. CIM is up 10% from a few weeks ago.

Silver could come down but invintories are falling

This link is a chart of silver inventories over the last few years; they are falling:   http://www.24hgold.com/english/interactive_chart.aspx?title=COMEX%20WAREHOUSES%20REGISTERED%20SILVER&etfcode=COMEX%20WAREHOUSES%20REGISTERED&etfcodecom=SILVER

in the short term silver could come down more but in the long term it is no way but up.

Gold legalized in Nevada

Here are the details on how it can be used; it can be diposited in a vault and a debit card can be issued against it.       <iframe width="420" height="315" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/xYSIQR7F6SU" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

Also Seeking Alpha interviewed Gary Kain of AGNC and they were quite impressed. Here is a link to the article:  http://seekingalpha.com/article/298768-an-interview-with-american-capital-s-gary-kain

2012 Obama to be re-elected

I do believe this is all silver will fall. If it falls further all the physical will get bought up anyways so no one will be able to get silver anywhere near the price anyways. I think the upper 20s is as far as it will go, it has been in the mid 20s but was bid back up real soon. I think $30 is a real good price to buy silver. It will resume the upward progress after a month or so. I think stocks will follow it up. I do not believe we are re-entering another recession or double dip. 2012 will be a good year and employment will improve as well as house prices. President Obama is trying to help people refinance and other programs are in place and I think it will get him re-elected. CIM is at $2.57. Even if people refinance and the Twist program goes through CIM may not be affected by it. CIM book value is 30% higher than what it is trading at. I feel AGNC is the best REIT as far as the people running the company. I personally have diversified away from REITs but have some AGNC and $1035 worth of CIM. I sold the VPLM and I do not feel like re-entering it so CIM replaced it.

Markets are down;AGNC comments on prepayment risk

AGNC is down 6% this morning and ARR took a huge 80 cent drop yesterday from $6.80. Here is a link to what AGNC says about the risk involved:
http://phx.corporate-ir.net/External.File?item=UGFyZW50SUQ9MTA3ODQzfENoaWxkSUQ9LTF8VHlwZT0z&t=1

AGNC claims they have loans that will be less impacted by prepayment risk.

Some may say to ride this out and collect the dividends but only if you will not need some of the principal investment soon. PSEC will not likely be impacted by the Twist program, in fact some say they will benefit and their share price is down less than 1% today so far( 8:46am) The days of having a portfolio full of REITs is over, they should only be kept in small portions now. 2010 was sure a nice ride.  I do think AGNC is the best run REIT.

11:55 AM 2011-10-4
RSO was down a lot today but now it is in the green!

I was thinking of selling half of my position of RSO but Indianastro has a financial astrology on its daily astrology and it said not to do stocks today.  I decided not to touch anything because in the past they were right when they made a suggestion.  It did take a drop yesterday and my astrology said it was good to trade so I did and I bought it all back at a lower price. This does not mean I suggest you check your astrology before going to the brockerage page but often I do. The markets are also in the green as well I do believe the market will recover but REITs have their problems currently. IVR and CIM are getting hit the hardest; ARR is down too. I just checked ARR, it is down $.01 on the day. Somebody got some ARR and RSO at a deep discount.

3:52 talk about a twisted day!  The following are the closing price charts for PSEC, AGNC, and RSO.

RSO

AGNC

PSEC

What is opertation Twist

The government plans to buy longer term bonds and sell short term bonds. This will drive long term yields down. AGNC makes money on long term housing loans.  The money the government raises on selling short term debt will go to purchase long term debt notes.  The bond year duration is not yet known. Here is a video that explains how the Operation Twist works or how they intend for it to work:

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US Debt clock; markets down

RSO is down 9% today. All REITs are down and things do not look good with pending discussion about the same changes that have been hanging over us for a while now( that I already discussed).   Here is an interesting link to a live feed to US debt. As long as this is running like this silver and gold will be good long term assetts to hold.

http://www.usdebtclock.org/

Lawsuit for manipulating silver

Here is the article:  http://panicof1907.com/anon/FINAL-Consolidated-Class-Action-Complaint.pdf

The bullion dealers are running out of coin silver, they are still selling it but it is on back order. The longer the metals prices are down the more severe the shortage will become. Almost all 90% silver is on back order (and some smaller .999 fine bars as well) at Goldmart.com. They have "delayed" item description. CNI is almost completely out of platinum and their palladium is low as well.  Currently platinum is lower than gold. Unless you want 1000 or 100 oz. bars or the large $22000 bags there will be a delay in shipments on a first come first serve basis.  I forsee the days of coin silver selling at spot to be over soon if it isn't already. 

VPLM problem

The VPLM website is closed; I sold my shares ar $.015 which is double what I paid. There is word on message board that something is wrong with the contract with Bleam. They may have it fixed by the end of the day but I cant chance it. It is not often you can double your money in a few weeks of time. I put the money into PSEC.VPLM is already down to $.0125.  I expect stocks and metals to recover now.

2011-9-29   12:52  I called Dennis Chang and left a message. He called back left message on my phone that the press release that will come out today will answer my question.

SLV buy embalance

There are not enough shares of SLV to fill the orders. SLV is at $31.86 at 10:02 am

Gold and silver coins minted by the US have been recognized as legal tender in Utah. Which state will be next?

$20 silver coming

This happened in 2004,2008 and now. The price seems to go to the previous high. I think silver could go down to $20 or the low 20s. If it gets that low physical availability will be harder to get, spreads are around $2 to $3 over spot just like back in 2008. Do not sell your physical silver, it will go back up, this is why I suggest silver and gold for more long term investments. Believe it or not this is a healthy correction; silver will in the long term go up for the next 40 years until we get out money system fixed.  The next high will be around $80+ and the next low could be around $49 in a few years unless we run out of physical silver. I do believe stocks will recover as well  but if a stock were to fall like this I would be worried. We could hit $25 today or tomorrow but I do not believe it will go below $20. You will never be able to buy physical silver for $20 again--spot may get there but they will raise the spreads on bars and coins so even if it went to $17 you would never get physical for less than $20. Remember there is less silver out there than gold and silver is consumed in small amounts that cannot be recovered. The reason why this is happening is because people are buying silver they never will see and they are buying silver they never could afford to hold long term because they are borrowing to buy it. They are day trading silver contracts which is a form of gambling.

1:22pm  Silver was down to $26.15 this morning and gold was down $100 to $1535 but they reversed the losses  and gold is now  or was recently $1607 and silver is $30.25 up $.20 on the day. The kitco charts have been hard to load lately.  Physical buying is very strong.
Margin requirements were raised 21% on friday.

Bullion shortages

I am seeing on message boards that some bullion dealers are closing down or running out of physical silver. Silver could go into the $20s but bullion may be hard to get.Some places are closing their websites because they do not want to sell below $30 an ounce. I think they simply do not want to take a loss on their silver inventory that they may have paid $40 per ounce for. This reminds me of 2008. 
   I checked some of the bullion dealer websites. Dimes are out at Apmex and they raised the spread on the other coins. The shortage isnt severe yet.  Silver is around $29 at 11:17pm sunday.  The problem about waiting for the price to go down is there may not be much to buy. This happened back in 2008. Silver dropped like this in 2004 after a run up, then 2008, and now it is happening. I think this is a trading pattern with silver but I am certain it will go back up again.  If this happened to one of my stocks I would sell it and not be happy at all. Companies can become penny stocks like Fannie Mai did and not ever go back over $1.00 again.  Silver will recover though just like it did the other times it fell in price; the budget shortfalls and faulty fiat money is still there and nothing has changed about silver itself.  They can't issue more shares of silver and gold like they do with stocks. We may have to wait a year or so to see $40 silver again though. If the economy picks up silver will be in demand for industry as well as investment. At 11:37pm sunday silver is $29.25 at Kitco.

Markets hemoraging silver and gold

Friday 6:53pm:

Gold opened the week at $1815; it is $1657 now.
Silver opened the week at $40.21 and it is $30.93 now.

I think most of the selling is in contracts and paper silver. Bullion dealers were very busy selling physical silver. Anyone who was leveraging silver got hit hard and likely got a margin call and had to sell to pay the call. Silver is down 24% on the week and most of it went in the last 2 days. Dont worry it will go back up, none of the debt problems or inflationary problems are fixed and people indeed are buying physical silver. Some places are runninng out of some varieties of coins or bullion but i didnt see any major shortages yet. keep in mind if you want physical to get it while it is available because there is indeed less silver out there to buy than gold and some need it to run their business. REITs went up today, some people may have sold metal ETFs to buy stocks.

Silver down 10%

Silver is down 10% but the public is buying physical bullion.  At one large bullion dealer, CNI in California, there was a line of people in the parking lot.
Gold closed at $1736.20 down $44.30
At 8:09 it is $1742.20

Silver closed at $35.84  down $3.70
At 8:09 it is  $36.29

CIM declares after hours

They will be paying the same dividend as last quarter- a $.13 with an ex dividend date of Sept.  29 and record date of Oct. 3. payment will be on Oct 27th. CIM closed at $2.91 but after hours trading was higher.

RSO declares $.25 dividend

$.25 per share will be paid on Oct. 27th to those holding on the record date of Sept. 30. 

ARR announced $.11 dividends for Oct, Nov. and Dec. down by $.01. They expect refinancing activity due to lower interest rates but they do expect to make more than they pay out in dividends. 

Mortgage rates, AGNC, VPLM

Mortgage rates are at record lows. AGNC ex dividend date is 2011-9-21 with a $1.40 per share payout.
VPLM is up 166%. They are building their new website and the new corporate investor website has been launched. Points Phone website will be ready in a few days.

12:52pm VPLM is at $.0237; I paid $.0068 plus fees what seems like a few weeks ago. New VPLM website:  http://www.voip-pal.com/VoipInvestorArea.asp      VPLM closed at 2 cents today.

IVR announces dividend

It will be paid  on October 27 to shareholders of record on Sept. 19th. The previous dividend was $.97, this one will be $.80.  The share price is $16.37 as of close today. In the last 3 months IVR has dropped over 25%. It was $22 3 months ago for a high.  This company, like CIM,  has had a lot of insider buys but has gone down despite the buys but some of the buys were at a lower price. Both CIM and IVR lost book value over the summer but their leverage rate is lower.  If the SEC decided to play with REIT leverage rates these 2 companies may be hit the least because they have lower leverage. I do believe the national house prices will begin to go back up in 2012.  Now is a good time to get back in to stocks because the market will resume the bull market but I think silver and gold will also continue to perform well. I cannot guarantee that all REITs will go up with stocks  when the market rebounds. Silver and gold will keep going up for the next 40 years until people realize gradually that the current money system is inadequate. Those who are stubborn and dont buy silver or gold will miss out on the protection and value and they will miss out on a chance of a lifetime. It will happen over time but the longer they wait the more of it they will miss.

More information on SEC and REITs

Your comments are requested by the SEC. There is a video on this link with some more information.  http://www.sec.gov/news/press/2011/2011-176.htm

Nationalization of REITs?

Government takeover reveals real problems in America

There are talks of the government in a sence buying the mortgage backed securities by allowing a large scale refinancing of house mortgages and making changes to the REIT structure.  If the government takes over with no cash to buy the securities then the burden will be back on all of us equally except maybe those who have a lot of silver and gold. The government will have to borrow more money or print more which will eventually create inflation. I think President Obama has the nations best interests at heart and this could possibly help some in distress but it is not adressing the real problem in America.  If this works it will get him re-elected.  Good stocks will also go up with inflation but if people panick they will come back down plus companies do not live forever. Our society is to much into debt in all levels. The only answer to this may be to come together as communities and help each other build houses. Amma.org or Embracing the World is doing this in India--whole communities are building whole townships with sewers and hospitals all without debt. We are a long ways from that in America because we all have to be paid for everything we do. There is no volunteerism here and we do not trust anyone including the Church so we try to do everything by ourselves which means borrowing from a bank. We do not get family help anymore like generations past. No one wants to give up their money and family life is breaking down so these situations dont exist as much. The problem is not President Obama or the FED; it is a social and family problem. The deeper we go the more it will look like communism, not because we have communists in office but because we dont work together on a family and community level. The government is being asked to do to much-- they are taking on roles that used to be done by family and local communities. No one trustsa anyone anymore, they cant rely on family or church or local help and wages are down because all of the women are working where as they didnt before.The problem is not the government it is a social and family structure or spiritual problem. The Church is more concerned with making the whole world become Christian but has left the wheel alltogether on practicing what Christ tought us to do plus the Church has forgotten some of what Christ tought. Businesses have taken over what the Church used to do and now the Church mostly tries to conquer the world by converting the other religions. Amma has all 3 of the great religions working together to build entire communities-no conversions and 100s of thousands of concrete houses for the poor that wont blow away in the next storm. This is creating cooperation and peace between the faiths and creates no debt--no mortgage backed securities. The houses we have here in America are tornado traps built solely to make money for a company-they arent built to last very long at all. I have seen the shoddy work being in the construction field and this is what your mortgage backed securities are based on that AGNC, CIM, NLY and others hold. We may learn that the quick buck is practically worthless but old values are everlasting and hold value. I need to learn it, you do, the president does and so does the Church! www.theyuha.blogspot.com (main blog) 

Comments to the SEC can be left at http://www.sec.gov/rules/concept/2011/ic-29779.pdf

http://www.sec.gov/news/press/2011/2011-176.htm

 

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Buy S and P

The Sand P will get down to 1209. It will be a good time to buy because it will be 1350 by year end. The stock markets will recover. I would recommend not having to much REIT stock in one company; spread the money out among diversified companies. It may not happen but President Obama wants to let American homeowners refinance their loans.  I do not think this will effect all REITS, commercial loans may not be effected. Also the SEC is talking about changing rules that govern how REITs operate, first their NAV--net assett value they would like to have daily reports like closed end funds do and there is talk of REITs following the leverage rules other companies have been following which could negatively impact the ability to leverage and achieve the high dividends we have been getting. I do feel AGNC is a good company but refinancing could impact them with prepayment risk. RSO has lower ratings than AGNC but they are into more commercial real estate. I listened to their quarterly report and they seem like a good company. I do not think they would be effected by refinancing but will benefit from the low interest rates.  The 2 companies may balance each other out for risk. RSO moves with the stock market more so than AGNC and the market will go up soon.

    In the next week or so the REITs AGNC,RSO,IVR, CIM, CMO,and ARR will become pregnant with the next quarter's dividends. RSO plans to pay $1 for 2011 so the next dividend is almost certainly a $.25.  They said this in their recent quarterly presentation.  ARR will be announcing the next 3 months of dividends because they pay monthly; septembers is already declared.

    At 1:05 pm SLV is up 3.9% at $42.10.Kitco silver is $43.23 up more than gold which is $1876.20 now. I saved a lot of headache by parking some cash in silver that was in stock; the silver has done well for me at a 5.64% rise so far in just a week or 2. There is a possibility  gold could come down some more when people start entering the stock market again, I do think silver will outperform gold because silver is an industrial metal. Copper will also go up even more certainly than silver.

Nickels

The federal government is taking bids to change the content of the nickel. Currently the nickel is worth $.061 (bullion of copper and nickel) and it costs $.077 to produce a nickel by the mint.  Pre 1982 pennies are worth  $.0273 each.  The zinc pennies currently made are worth $.006 or 6/10 of a cent. This is all a result of inflation; the metals aren't really going up that much, the dollar is going down in value.  How long will it be until we are saving the zinc pennies?  it seems to me silver and gold are the only effective means to defend yourself against this erosion in the value of money. It almost seems silver and gold are going up faster than inflation so they seem like an investment as a bonus. If you do not like looking through pennies then get your nickels before they change them because afterwards you may have to search through them and you may have to look by the date to get the good ones because otherwize they may look the same on the surface. I think they may do the change in 2012.  Could nickel and or copper be the next metals to gain market attention? It may be worth having a little on hand as a store of wealth for small purchases.

   Nickels are 75% copper and 25% nickel. The pre 1982 pennies are 95% copper. InfoMine.com has a lot of different commodity charts to look at.  Click on the images to enlarge.

VPLM stock

VPLM is at $.0068. I talked to the founder of the company Richard Kipping and he thinks the stock is down because the market is down so much which makes sence.  I told him Im looking for insider trades on this company. He has stock but is retired from the company, he also said some people he knows have bought some VPLM stock. VPLM is at a record low right now, do you think it is an opportunity?  If you look at a 5 year chart the RSI is the lowest today it has been in 5 years. Click on the chart to get a bigger picture. The charts are from Etrade.com    VPLM bought Call Arc. You can get free or enexpensive international calls on your cell phone or computer. Basically you can fill out forms to get free minutes or you can buy minutes-- you can also get others in for credits. Here is a video on how to do it:  http://mypointsphone.com/how.php  The purchase of Call Arc was recently by VPLM , the name will be changed to My Points Phone website is http://callarc.com/

Refinancing possibility

9:50am President Obama may let homeowners refinance their home loans. The interest rates are falling. This could be bad for REITs. I sold everything and they are still coming down. Here is a link:  http://www.cnbc.com/id/44269404

Margin requirements were raised on gold which caused the fall in price a few days ago.

11:03pm   Put 2/3 of portfolio to silver and gold--mostly silver. The rest has some REITs including 600 ARR and no CIM.  I still think CIM is a good buy but my portfolio of REITs is smaller and ther is no room for the risk.  ARR may be better than CIM, they have a $-.14 for last quarter but higher earnings at other times and they have decent ratings.  I still say it is odd how they reported the earnings but the stock outperforms CIM and pays monthly. Gold margins were raised from $7500 to $9450 on the futures market. I do not think we are going into another recession but REITs may see some turbulance. If the market picks up silver may go up with the market and we may see some inflation. After all it is an industrial metal. Next year at this time this will be just a memory. Silver and gold have much higher to go, we are not at the end of the bull market and Gold is not in a bubble.  There could be a sell of off of some gold to re-enter the stock market and I have much less of it than silver. They may come down some but silver is used in industry and until we fix the broken system both will go up steadily over the long run.

Fitch affirms AAA rating on US debt

They disagree with S and P; they have a stable outlook on the AAA rating.  They will re-visit the decision at the end of 2011 and could go negative if lawmakers fail to save the $2.1 Trillion the agreed on. Of course Republicans blame President Obama for the S and P downgrade a few weeks ago. I think president Bush is the most to blame and the Republicans seem to want to spend but take in no taxes.  They refuse to let the rich pay any taxes and definitely not the super rich or corporations.  Then when we realize we are to far in debt the benefits to the poor and middle class are on the chopping block just like here in Wisconsin with Governot Walker.   I predict that president Obama will get a second term but I think it will turn him gray. We should pray for him even if we disagree with him. as I said before September will be better than August and 2012 will be better than 2011.

Long term interest rates are falling

This could have an impact on fixed rate REITs like AGNC. 10 year bonds are down 125 basis points. I noticed the charts on more long term loans are going down. Some people may be refinancing loans as well which means some securities may be paid off early which is less  income for companies like AGNC. AGNC is down 2% today but CMO is up almost 1%.  This may be one example why you should hold different types of REITs.

Ratings innacurate?

The US claims mortgage backed securities ratings by Standard and Poors may be over-rated. Article:  http://www.cnbc.com/id/44184348    REITs lost most of their recent gains, general market( NASDAQ) is also down 4.92% at 12:38pm cts.

1:51pm  a little good news:  WTI crude oil is down 6.04% to 82.29. Car gas should come down. Most of the market moves today are from problems in Europe.

IVR announces offering

IVR announced an offering of 20 million shares at $18.39 which is considered current  book value. This is an increase of shares by 21%. At 6:50 pm the share price after hours is $18.38.  IVR closed at $19.29. I notices all of the REITs are down aftermarket. Some are down over 1%--they pretty much gave up the gains they made today. 

Buy S and P or US markets after Sept 2011

American indexes will reach all time highs -- DOW to 36,000 in the next 4 years.  Buy from end of September 2011.-- Mahendra.  In the mean time foreign markets will have a tougher ride than the US.

Why buy silver or gold?

I have a video here that explains the danger of unprotected stocks.  We need to realize the danger or risk we have. I propose a solution of buying silver or gold to protect your stock or mutual funds or any other investments. I feel that silver is a better choice. See my page on how to buy silver and gold. here is the video:  http://youtu.be/nonySiAuDJU   I do not feel that a major crash is imminent but it could come at any time. Personally I think Europe could have more problems but I think September will be Ok or at least a good time to get back into the markets.  I do not think Europe will bring down the world economy.  The problems we sweep under the rug today will re-surface if we have other suprise problems.   I do think in years to come a natural disaster could bring the world to panic.  Markets will drop like the Japanese market dropped earlier this year but it could be worse if the disaster hits the USA.  There will be no warning so you need to be prepared in advance.  We will have a number of good years and it will be the last thing on peoples minds then it will suddenly happen and the sell off in the stock markets will be devestating.  Even in good times be careful how much you margin, you may wake up to margin calls because of a suprise.  I encourage silver and gold because the fiat currency we have could also suffer, it would be good to have cash too. I am keeping some in the form of nickels because they are allready worth 6 or 7 cents a coin.  Pennies before 1982 are worth more than face value as well but you need to look through the pennies. For the values of all coins from the USA and Canada see   http://www.coinflation.com/coin_calculators.html

Paper money is good in small amounts, it may lose value though due to inflation.  The zinc pennies are worth about  2/3 of a penny and quarters are worth only 8 or 9 cents. Nickels are the best form of cash, you do not have to look through them yet and if you need the money you can take them back to the bank.  If you do not have at least 10% of your investments in silver or gold you are in danger. You could buy ETFs, bars, or coins.Keep in mind people may sell silver to pay stock margins especially if silver is high so they may be volatility but in the long run silver and gold will be the best investments to have to protect your net value. I do not recommend large bars. Stay below 100 oz. bars unless you have a lot of money. See my page on how to buy and sell silver and gold.

More insider buys at CIM, and RSO

Even their kids are buying it. 1.    http://investor.chimerareit.com/ShowFile.aspx?Output=XML&KeyFile=11607152&Format=XML

2.  http://investor.chimerareit.com/ShowFile.aspx?Output=XML&KeyFile=11606844&Format=XML

3. Since 2011-8-4 RSO has had 26,000 shares bought by insiders. The company deals in commercial real estate. This company isnt as good as AGNC or CMO in ratings but is worth a small investment.

Markets seem to have calmed down but many of the good deals are bought up. It almost seems like it is back to normal prices. Europe could create more volatility in our markets yet, some of the weaker companies could come back down. With a promise of low rates until 2013 companies like AGNC, NLY, and CMO will not come down much anymore unless they have an offering which they did some in the summer already. In another month most of these companies will be pregnant with dividends, they all had decent earnings, RSO was kind of weak though with $.11/share. 

Markets up; REITS up 10+%

REITs:

AGNC    $29.77          + $3.04       +11.39%

CMO      $12.86          +1.41          +12.31%

CIM       $3.16             +.31            +10.88%

IVR       $18.69            +1.74          +10.27%

ARR      $7.58              +.54            +7.67%

Closed End Funds:

GNT     $16.25            +.664          +4.26%

NCZ     $7.99              +.34            +4.44%

NASDAQ  $2482.52   +124.83     +5.29%

Commodities:

11:06pm CTS

Silver $38.25

Gold  $1757.10

WTI Crude   $82.05     +2.75         +3.47%

$$ Index  73.988        -.617             -.79%

Chart for CIM insider buys, on 2011-8-3 200,000 shares were purchased by insiders.I think CIM is safe to buy now in the low $3 range.The NAV is $3.08, the book value is $3.35

AGNC 2011-8-9 1 day chart to close

AGNC  3 months to 2011-8-9 (Etrade Charts)

I decided to take more cash out of my portfolio so I sold the Closed End Funds. I took about half of the money and put it into REITs  and left the rest cash. Right after that the FED announced that interest rates will stay down until 2013 because the economy is so slow in recovering. That news caused all the REITs to go up even more at a steeper rise.  NCZ closed at what I sold it for and GNT only went up a little, the NAV for GNT  is $ 15.92. Etrade lists GNT as a 40 risk but the performance is not as good as it should be. 

Price of gold surpasses platinum

At 1:26 am tuesday gold is at $1748

                            Platinum is at $1711

                               Silver is at $38.82

Markets are down 2 to 3% in Asia--were down much more than that a few hours ago. This due to the Sand P downgrade of the US debt and the European debt situation. People are selling stocks and buying gold.

Stocks took a beating from downgrade

the Sand P downgrade also came to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac securities which further supressed REIT stock.  AGNC in my opinion is one of the best REITs out there. They closed at $26.73 losing $1.62 or 5.71%. AGNC's book value is $26.76.  Most dividend plays are at or below NAV or book value right now. There may be some bargains here but caution is advised, the market could drop more. I recommend any stock purchase should be accompanied by some silver or gold to protect your long term net value. At 5:24pm today silver was at $39.09, I am aware silver could come down considerably but I do not think it will be to long until we see $50 silver again. Do not buy physical silver unless you plan to keep it for 2 or 3 years, buy ETFs for shorter term holdings.

S+P lowers US credit rating

The S and P lowered the US credit rating from AAA to AA+ between midnight and 1am saturday morning on Aug. 6th.  This could cause bond rates to go up. This may make money more expensive to borrow. There are 3 credit bureaus, this is just one of the ratings. Mahendra did say this was likely to happen.

Sold ARR

ARR 's  earnings per share listed  at $-.14 today. I had to look on the special charts to find this under company events:  earnings and dividends.  ARR earnings per share has not been listed in the news even though the earnings date passed.  Something is wrong here, Im not risking it with my money. If anyone has any insight on this let me know--leave a message. Usually when these REITs have an earnings announcement they list everything in detail with earnings per share in the news column right on the stock page.Most people would not know to look where I did to find this, to me this kind of looks like the cat's crap hidden in the corner where no-one can see it.  It is 4:18 central time and I see nothing listing earnings per share. I sold the remaining ARR I had after hours at $7.35.

I replaced some of the ARR holdings I had with CMO. They are paying out what they make and they have been around longer. They also hold adjustable mortgages which may perform better if interest rates go up. I do not recommend putting all of your funds into any stocks right now, a safe alternative is JASBX a short term bond related mutual fund. You must keep the cash in there for 3 months or you pay $50 fee. Otherwize there is no buy or sell fee.

I tried leaving a comment about the ARR EPS on the Yahoo finance message board for ARR and was immediately deleted. I tried again and couldnt leave a second response to another persons inquiry. There is something going on here! I called Etrade and they agreed something isnt right. He agreed that the earnings were -$.14 and he saw what I wrote here and agreed I am not out of line with my statement.

More insider buys for CIM:   http://investor.chimerareit.com/ShowFile.aspx?Output=XML&KeyFile=11568886&Format=XML   There are other insider buys as well.Over $500,000  worth total were bought recently. Could it be that CIM is ready to turn around. The net asset value is $3.08, the book value is $3.35. I noticed when ARR and other companies took a nose-dive this morning that CIM barely went down at all.

NASDAQ down 10% on week

Mahendra said this was coming but I didnt check his website in time. he said buy back into metals and stock in September. He sais 2012 will see big gains on the markets. Fundamentally the REIT sector has no problems but fear is driving the prices down. Unemployment is not up so I do not foresee  extra defaults on mortgages but if things get worse that could happen.  All of the REITs are down but not as much as Ford or the general market. Silver dropped 6% yesterday and is down over 1% today. The dollar is stronger just like in 2008.

New REIT in offering MTGE

Tomorrow Aug, 4 MTGE will begin trading on the NASDAQ at $20 per share. 8 million shares will go out on the market to invest in agency , non agency securities and related investments. The name of the company is American Capital mortgage Investment  Corp., it has a similar logo as AGNC and the address is I think in the same building. The logo looked so similar that i thought AGNC was doing an offering but I do not expect such an offering quite yet from AGNC or the other REITs. It seems ARR is doing the best of the list- I would expect an offering there first but they had one kind of recently. To contact MTGE call 301-968-9220. MTGE will be available on Etrade accounts tomorrow morning starting at $20 per share.

REITs did well today as did silver. 

IVR

IVR is in a good position to handle higher interest rates but if rates were to fall it would further deteriorate their book value which already is down 9% to $19.35. CMO and CIM has some similar investments and they are also down today. 

Vote Democrat next time!

They put all of these Republicans in office recently and we got gridlock. Emanuel Cleaver of Missouri called the recent action " A sugar coated Satan sandwich"  It was either this or the economy would be thoroughly trashed.  There will be cuts on education and other programs that help the middle class but no new ways to raise revenue. The Republicans just refuse to let the wealthy pay any tax. This comment is being written at just past noon on Aug. 2 2011 but we need to remember this on election day.Last week  REIT markets were down every day because of this and yesterday AGNC went up 3%+ before the market opened just as all the REITs did. Some of you lost a lot of money because you had to sell worrying that the arguement would drag on and do permanent damage. I didnt sell my core earners but I reduced my risk and was concerned about the future, I did lose some money on what I sold. If you own a REIT you better vote for Obama next term and do not vote for anymore Republicans. These people dragged this on while our investments suffered as a result. 

3:05 central time

Debt fears in Europe made markets fall:

NASDAQ  2669.24   -75.37  or - 2.75%

DJIA         11866.77  -265.72    -2.19%

AGNC       $28.49      -.54          -1.86%

IVR            $19.68      -.51          -2.53%

ARR           $7.52        -.01          -.13%

CIM            $3.13        +.02         +.6%

Silver          $40.79     +1.53       +3.7%

Gold           $1656       +36.20     +2.1%

$$index       74.446      +.184      +.24%

Video--description of last week:  http://www.youtube.com/embed/2YDqS6oMyfw?rel=0

Insider buy at IVR

http://www.snl.com/irweblinkx/doc.aspx?IID=4209142&DID=13112770     Williams, Neil bought 574 IVR on 2011--7-29.

Last time IVR was at this price the earnings wes $.77 a share, the recent earnings was $.99 per share. I think this stock is undervalued. AGNC and IVR are down over 1% but ARR is up one cent. CIM reported earnings of $.14 missing by $.01. The share price is at $3.13. They have not voted yet on the debt ceiling but news is due to come out any time now.

Bedford report

Bedford report says there is a 50% chance that the US govt.  credit could be downgraded which could impact REIT dividends. REITS are up today on better news out of Washington on a debt deal.

AGNC has another good quarter

They beat the analysts estimate by 10 cents per share.

Net income:     $1.36

Taxable income   $1.56

Book value:       $26.76

Undistributed income- leftover from the last dividend: $.44

Average leverage rate: 7.6x

The budget problem in Washington is still suppressing REITs and will continue to until the problem is resolved or at least the debt ceiling is raised. I do think they will raise the debt ceiling which is like raising the amount you can charge on your credit card. I do not like the fact that Republicans refuse to let wealthy people pay higher taxes but yet under President Bush they spent way to much money and lowered taxes instead. The war which the Iraq part was not necessary and expensive plus the medicare prescription plan was also quite expensive with no way to pay for it. Now President Obama is trying to spend money to get the economy going which I do not think is quite as bad. Regardless of who is at fault there isn't enough money. I say buy some silver and or gold to protect your income stocks, I dont think anything will happen this time but maybe years ahead we may be glad we have it. We could just simply have some more inflation or we could have a default situation caused by a natural disaster. Personally I do not feel that President Obama is doing a bad job, I tend to be more in agreement with him than the Republicans. I do think silver will go up this fall.

2012 to be good- not end of world.

Mahendra predicts 2012 to be best year for stocks.  Here is a link to his astrological commentary:  http://www.mahendraprophecy.com/predictions.php?id=64 

REIT stocks down again

I think it may be due to the debt problems in Washington perhaps similar to this spring.  The markets in general are mixed but all REITs are down.  I do think they will resolve it, they will probably raise the debt ceiling which will fix things for now but it seems to me like sweeping the dirt under the rug. When they come to an agreement the markets will rebound.

3:05 The markets took a beating.  Here is an interesting video from July 13 2011:  Ron Paul vs. Bernanke  Is gold money?       http://youtu.be/2NJnL10vZ1Y
 
I do feel we all need silver and or gold in all of our portfolios to protect our net value. It may not be a real good short term investment and you do not get dividends but when all else fails these metals will shine.

AGNC $29.12  -.48      -1.62%
ARR     $7.38    -.11      -1.47%
IVR      $21.04   -.56     -2.59%
NLY    $17.89    -.21     -1.16%
CIM     $3.29      -.09     -2.66%

Nasdaq 2762.67  -34.25  -1.22%
3:17pm Kitco
$ index  75.256    +.048   +.06%
Silver     $ 38.46   +.23
Gold      $1586.40  +3.80   

VPLM

VPLM was raised to the "OTC Pink Current Information tier" in the Pink market at 8:30 this morning, The company president had told me he was doing this and he thought it would go through. Markets are up and REITs are up.

NLY just did an offering

This is a deal I cant pass up, I just bought 1000 at 18.10. The Vlmp is dropping I sold the penny stocks and got some NLY on margin-- much less risky than developing companies. Maybe next year for speculation in new companies. CIM closed at $3.42 but the rsi is actually going up a little- looks a little scary to me. Credit Suisse considers the book value at $3.23 now.They do give the stock a favorable review though.

Markets down on European debt

Nasdaq is down 2% and the REITS are all down except ARR (unchanged) which is pregnant with a dividend of $.12 (Goes exdiv tomorrow). NCEN and  VPLM are also down.  Except the problems in Europe there is no REIT news.

NLY $17.95  -$.37 -2.02%
CIM $3.45 -$.07    - 1.99%
AGNC $29.90 -.30 -.98%
ARR  $7.66 -.01      -.13%
IVR  $21.63 -$.39   -1.77%
NASDAQ                -2.00%   -57.19   2802.62

CIM is at or below book value. Oil is down and gold is up:
$$ INDEX +.679 @ 76.006
GOLD      +9.5    @  1553.70 at 3:30 central time
SILVER   -.92     @  35.79

Personally I think silver and gold could still correct down along with oil but I think oil is more certain to come down than the metals. People are buying gold to protect their assets but many are driving less because the prices are high and the economy is not good enough to maintain such high gas prices. People are also selling foreign currency and buying US dollars. I do not feel that the US economy is in risk, 2012 should be a good year but interest rates could rise in 2012 along with the improving economy which will impact the REIT sector.

VPLM stock

This is a penny stock that actually has a product out on the market. here is an add for it:  http://youtu.be/fha6g4x5QFc   This product is for smartphones. The price of the stock is $.027 but more people are buying than selling this morning. This company is something like Magicjack. You can make long distance international calls with VPLM---Voip Pal Com Com. AGNC is down today but the other REITS are up. AGNC is reversing yesterdays gains, ARR is doing well.NCEN has a very low volume.

VPLM sells Magicjack, here is a link to their website:    http://www.voip-pal.com/magicjack/
I use magicjack for all of my long distance and it does work. The local phone company doesnt like it so they illegally block local calls on magicjack but I have a local line so i just use that to call neighbors. The magicjack works perfectly for all long distance calls. I used to use a cell phone for long distance, the magicjack has a much clearer sound. You have to have internet to use magicjack. Magicjack is CALL on the exchange, these are 2 companies but VPLM sells magicjack. I have been using magicjack since december of 2010. VPLM is for smartphones and international long distance, they also have an antivirus program for smartphones.

2:10pm
I talked to the president of VPLM on the phone- it was hard to find but he picked up the phone. The device is a virtual version of magicjack--nothing to plug in used on Android and I-Phone as an application that you download off the internet. This is for the business traveler, you pay by the minute but you can also call outside of the USA. he said a 3 to 4 hour call to India would cost about $8. You can also download the program to your laptop. You would use a computer handset to make the call. The program is very similar to Skype but it works on I-phone and Android.  In the next week VPLP plans to file for "Full Disclosure Status" on the Pink Sheet listing.( I believe this is the OTCQB status which is the middle tier of the OTC market) He thinks the company will be approved by the Pink sheet. To register and buy minutes go to http://pointsphone.com . The minimum purchase to begin is $10. I do think the business traveler would be interested in this product, if anyone buys it leave a comment on how you like it.The President, Dennis Chang is a very sucessful businessman.  Here is a link to more information:  http://www.trade4all.com/view_newsletters.php?email_id=28385&thetitle=VPLM+CEO+once+named+100+Most+Influential+People+in+theMicrocomputer+Industry&desc=...

happy 4th of July

message for independance day: happy 4th of July:
<iframe width="640" height="390" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/-q0NJllydKs?rel=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

GNT insider buy

On June 14th Director Conn, James bought 3000 GNT.  I do feel that gold and silver could go down more. Oil should go down more too. At 11:36 wti oil is $90.79, there are places in central Wisconsin that have gas at $3.43 (near Madison)

Inside sells at IVR

3634 shares were sold since june 22, since Early June 7500 shares were bought by insiders. For details click link.      http://www.snl.com/irweblinkx/insiders.aspx?IID=4209142
Markets were down today, ARR was down 10 cents, otherwize REITS were not affected. WTI oil is $91.23 this evening.

Gold and oil down

WTI crude at 11:19 am is $91.18 down 4.43%. Gold is $1521  -26.90. The consumer nations of oil agreed to release oil reserver for the third time ever thus increasing supply. Gas prices are dropping as I write. Stocks are down, especially commodity related. Dollar index is up .80 to 75.592.  REITS are down some. AGNC is $28.63 down .215, just like IVR and ARR lately you cant hardly tell there was an offering, the price may have been down aftermarket but not during the day. Perhaps demand for this is going up. GNT and GGN is down because they hold gold and some oil, I would wait to buy them for a little while. AINV is down the most at $9.74--was $10.10 a few days ago. I think President Obama is doing good by releasing the oil reserves, the price was already going down, this will drop the price a lot and save our economy which was being choked by high oil prices. Strings are also being pulled in the Federal Reserve to help the econome and interest rates will stay down. Foreign imports such as shoes and clothes are expected to go up some, perhaps it will be more worthwhile to buy American products. I think wages in China are going up.

AGNC announced an offering tonight.

Im guessing the offering  is for about $27.77 a share, I didnt notice it until after 9pm at night. Despite markets being down today REITs and closed end funds( except AINV) were up. Metals looked mixed earlier today with gold up a little and silver down a little. NCEN closed at $.036. It looks like those asking are holding out and making buyers pay what the ask is.

IVR offering at $20.15

IVR public offer price: $20.15 or $342,550,000
Commissions                $    .25
Proceeds to IVR           $19.90
Settlement June 20

REITS Close:
IVR  20.89  -$.10
AGNC $20.89  +.10
ARR  $7.40  -$.07
CIM $3.52 +.02     $.13 dividend declared yesterday-- old one was $ .14

Closed End Funds:
GGN $17.10  +.34
GNT  $17.54  + .34
AINV $10.145 +.10

Wind  NCEN  $.032  -.004

NCEN and CBWP

I called NCEN investor relations. They claim they could break ground on the new CBWP wind plant any day now and possibly be done by this December. They still have to get turbine financing yet.  NCEN owns 30% of CBWP. The new wind farm  will have 200 MW total which is 100 turbans in North Dakota.  NCEN has connections to financing and CBWP has the technical knowhow. CBWP has put up turbans before but to their regret they sold them in 2005, it seemed like a good idea at the time. The risk grade on NCEN is 631 now.it is trading at $.035 as of 12:30 tuesday. CBWP is at  a nickel a share but the ask is $.08 so there is no volume. NCEN is easier to buy it seems. IVR is down only $.12 after an offering, I would expect a bigger drop than that. ARR is $7.39, AGNC went ex dividend today. Link to more information: http://www.marketwire.com/press-release/nacel-energy-announces-28-million-financing-for-crownbutte-wind-power-otcqb-ncen-1524718.htm

IVR offering today

IVR is down 70 cents from the close, if you dont have it or have enough it is a good time to get in.

penny stock wind NCEN insider buys

2011-6-4 Schaftlein, Mark chief executive officer of Nacel Energy bought 1,169,600 shares of NCEN. He currently holds 1,549,600 shares.

2011-6-4
Fleming, Murray (officer and director)  bought 1,000,000 shares of NCEN, currently has 2,000,000.

This is a wind turban site developer, they do not yet have operation but they did recently invest in CBWP (Crownbutte Wind Power) which has some turbans. The risk grade on NCEN is 822.

Lawsuit over CIM, CSX,NLY and FIDAC

Fidac manages CIM and CSX. Apparently CSX shares were offered lower than what they should have been instead of selling them at a higher price. CSX and CIM both suffered similar losses. Take a look at the legal documents:
                                      http://iapps.courts.state.ny.us/iscroll/SQLData.jsp?IndexNo=650973-2011

ARR news

ARR is being added to the Russel Global, Russell 3000, and Russell Microcap.Zacks recently rated ARR a sell but I do not have any details why. ARR is down $.08 today. Stock Scouter rated ARR an 8 out of 10 (outperform the market), the old rating was  a 10. Reuters is neutral as of yesterday as it was before before.  I do not see any news but the trade volume is high. Other REITs are down today but not  much. Vector Vest basically has not changed their ratings- still a hold, below average safty and undervalued compared to April 11, 2011. The Fed. Chairman Bernanke does not plan to raise interest rates any time soon, I expect that to come early next year. I see talk of the risk of non-agency paper- risk of loan defaults for IVR on message boards.  An new ETF came out that is invested in REITs, it is called ROOF. It has 20.73% motrgage REITs, 17.97% Retail,17,6% office, also has hotel and diversified. Companies included are IVR, DCT,RWT,and SHO. GNT is down again at $17.06 leaving a 9.85% yield, GGN is $16.984 which leaves a 9.89% yield - these closed end funds invest in gold and other commodities which have been down some lately and may be feeling the preassure of a down market. Their NAV is also down. 8pm WTI crude is $92.91--gas should go down some more.

IVR Insider buys

The green are insider buys.

ARR dividend announcement this morning

ARR announced dividends of $.12 each for holders on record:
  July 15, will be paid July 28
  Aug. 15, paid on the 30th
  Sept. 15, paid on 29th.
The ex dividend is usually a few days before the record date. This was the dates given on Etrade, ex div. dates not given yet.

Why gold related stocks are down more than gold

There are fears of difficulty in procuring funding, they fear banks may not loan money out similar to 2008. GNT is down as well as GGN but gold is also down which is what they have, their NAV is also falling. The mines are going through the same thing as well as other corporations that need funds from lending institutions to operate.Today ARR went ex dividend, dont sell until after the record date(June 15). ARR has a monthly dividend. Personally I do not think we will have a big downturn in the markets or economy but metals could drop more and oil will come down more. I think part of the reason for the slow-down is oil went to high and it spooked people so they pulled back on spending. The debt crisis in Europe is bad, I think the Euro could lose some value but I think we here in the US will be ok.

On 2011-6-8 James Balloun's wife bought 5000 shares of IVR at $22.57. He now owns 7500 shares total.

Markets down again

Saudia Arabia or Opec indicated they were going to reduce production but they raised it instead. This will help gas prices, I predict gas prices to go down this summer and possibly metals as well. They operate well over there when oil is at $70 a berrel, if the price is to high then people stop using much gas.  11:01 am:   Silver $36.67 -.90,    Gold $1535.20   -$9.10,  $ index  +.54 at 74.732,  WTI crude $99.26 - $2.67 or down 2.62%             NASDAQ -30.90  -1.15% at 2653.97. AGNC declared the $1.40 dividend this morning. ARR is at $7.69. I sold my ARR that was on  on margin made some cash. I had bought it when they did the offering.  The econbomy is not strong enough for high oil prices so they have to come down, the high oil prices we have had have been a drag on our economy. CIM is $3.55 down $.03, they should be announcing dividend soon. I think they are 10 cents from book value. AGNC is having a hard time going up in this market- it is back and forth from negative to positive trading on the day.  11:22 Cim has an RSI of 32.37 at $3.54, it is not totally oversold yet but a dividend announcement may stop the drop. The markets have taken a beating the last week and CIM is falling with the general market, when the market comes back up CIM will also go up. 

Stock indexes are down for 4 straight days.

CIM clode at $3.73

CIM - $.06 to 3.73 (  book val. is $3.45)  IVR 22.43 unch,  AGNC -.03 to 30.31,  NLY -.02 to 18.20, ARR +.01 to $7.57, NASDAQ - 30.22 (-1.11%), silver +.52 to $36.81, gold +$2.10 to 1544.50, and the $ index + .294 to 73.986.  Unemployment is still over 9%, ironically big businesses are doing fairly good but people are not back to work. I think much of this is much of our production is done overseas or by machines.  The problem is the rich are getting richer and the poorer are getting poorer. I do not think the big businesses are passing down the savings they reap by using machines and cheap overseas labor. I also do not care much for regular stock because very little cash gets to the stockholders and equity can take a big hit without notice. I am still bullish on REIT stock, the slowing growth will likely delay any interest rate hikes for a while. I predict things will pick up though and rates will go up early in 2012. AGNC has a good hedge against interest rate hikes, they have an investment in place at all times to insure themselves (and the stockholders) against a hike in rates. For those with an appetite for a little risk CIM is quite oversold. I also think the Nasdaq is kind of oversold now. GNT is down more, it could go down again if gold takes a drop, it is oversold some but not like CIM.  AGNC should declare dividends any day now- I predict another $1.40.
     

"Let me be a free man. Free to travel. Free to stop. Free to work. Free to choose my own teachers. Free to follow

the religion of my fathers. Free to think and talk and act for myself."

 Chief Joseph-Nez Perce

 

Reason why I said no offering

ARR Investor relations said a few weeks ago that they will not sell stock below book value-- well they didnt. It went for $7.40 a share. This is considerably more than the last offering. I picked up more today at $7.46-it is going up already.  I was thinking that the share price wasnt high enough to do an offering, apparently they got a better deal this time.  Silver is down today as are the general markets, unemployment is still bad which is pulling down markets. I do not think we have to worry about interest rate hikes for at least 6 months. AGNC and GNT are also down mor due to general markets. Gold may not go down as much as silver but it could pull GGN and GTN down but it shouldnt affect the dividend. ARR closed at $7.45, I bought more at $7.43.  AGNC should declare dividends in the next 8 or 9 days. I think it will be another monster $1.40 dividend, they still have money left over from last quarter.

ARR announces offering, after market .

ARR is trading at $7.34 aftermarket. It came a little sooner than I expected. I was expecting them to wait for prices to go higher, I was wrong.

8:55pm  John day a Director  (insider) of IVR bought 2500 IVR on May 26, 2011.

I do not expect silver to keep going up this summer, this summer may be a good time to enter the market if you got left behind earlier when it went up.  There could be another drop in price, oil should also be down.

GNT closed end fund

The closed end fund is called Gabelli Natural Resources, they invest in gold, and other commodities with an emphasis on gold. Basically they trade the Etfs and may do mining stock and generate a dividend- something bullion cannot do unless you physically buy and sell it which is a lot of work.  GGN has been around for years, they did take a beating for stock value in 2008 but it did not effect the dividend at all.  GNT is a new version of the same type of business. GGN is AMEX and GNT is new since January of 2011 and is NYSE traded. NAV is the value of the assets they hold, similar to book value but not the same. It changes from day to day.  I find that this GNT, which is presently trading at $18.86 whichn is $.20 over NAV presently, lowers your risk grade on your portfolio. It has a risk grade of only 21 where AGNC has a risk grade of 168.

SLV-  silver ETF   risk grade  218

AGNC  REIT stock                168

ARR      REIT stock                106

GNT  closed end fund                21

Both silver ETF and the GNT bring down the risk of the portfolio, the silver due to diversification, and the GNT because of lower risk and diversification. I trade with Etrade.  GNT just declared monthly dividends for June, July, August, and September. The record date is June 16th, have it by the ex dividend date, they dont list it but it is usually 2 or 3 days before the record date. each month will have it's own record date just like ARR has. GGN is somewhat more overbought than GNT right now and the price for GNT is closer to NAV right now.  GNT's RSI is 49  while GGN is overbought, so I favor GNT but GNT is new. Both of these work with gold.

What GNT is invested in:
            50.4% metals and mining
            20.8% Energy and energy services
            12.1% Specialty chemicals
            6.2%   agriculture
            2.3%   machinery

A drop in the price of gold could impact GNT stock performance.

shorting ARR but losing?

ARR is up$.125 at 12:46pm today. people were shorting ARR thinking there would be an offering. I do not believe there would be an offering at this price. Now they are covering their shorts-they have to buy the stock at the higher price to pay the bank off. This is possibly driving the price higher.   These kind of things go on with penny stocks, it is kind of silly. ARR may not do the offering for another year, they do not have to do it within a month or anything.  Other REIT stocks are only up modestly at this time.  I do not recommend playing with these kind of stocks, the whole idea of holding them is the cash dividend. People were selling ARR just before the ex dividend this last few weeks and the stock went up and they lost the cash dividend. Now if they want to get back in they get a smaller dividend because the price is higher.