1. Silver and REIT stock March 21- 2011 to May 7-2011

7. Gold and silver Charts AGNC,ARR,and CIM

CIM 3.96 ! March 31 Glad I sold! It will come back. perhaps it is an opportunity. This stock is the highest risk of all of them, be careful.

ARR 3 months close $7.57 (March 31) In Febuary this company doubled it's size with an offering.

AGNC 3 year $29.14 (Mar 31) This is a large company bringing some big investment money which will make it more stable.

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Predictions for silver 2011-3-21

Big sell-off coming for silver and gold. Stocks could suffer some  more because liquidity will be needed to re-build Japan. When metals bottom out then there is opportunity to buy because they will go back up. This could come in April of 2011.  Also in the past years silver and gold come down after March highs. This sell of may come as oil comes down, the drop could be a sharp one.

REIT stock 2011-3-21  (Real Estate Investment Trust must pay 90% of taxable income to shareholders)

AGNC is having an offering today, good time to enter. ARR is going up now, this REIT combined with AGNC will reduce your risk plus give you 19.5% dividend per year Record Date in a few days so dont sell.  AGNC has a risk grade of 140 but ARR 40% and AGNC 60% yields a risk grade of 100 when in portfolio together. CIM has a risk grade of 290. ARR pays every month. ARR is at $7.41 now which is just a little over Book Value. CIM is having a scrawny dividend so the share price is down (.14 as opposed to the usual .17) They were $4.28 but dropped to $4.18 per share after the announcement this evening. CIM does have some insider buys at $4.18 last month, which is bullish.  I saw this coming and sold it last Friday.  I always suggest silver and (or) gold positions to insure these or any stock positions.

March 24, 2011
A few hours ago silver hit 38.10  for about an hour or less, now at just after the N.Y. close it is $37.03. the US dollar is .11% weaker and the markets are up. IVR (Investco mortgage capital Inc., a REIT)  recently did an offering plus paid a dividend and are at about a 10% discount. They have a 4.1% leverage which is better than AGNC or ARR. They paid 18.3%  annual or 4.5% quarterly dividend of  $1.00 per share. They have very good ratings.  ARR was raised by Reuters  from negative to neutral  or hold just in the last 2 days and stockta.com isnt bearish on them like before. I think $38.10 is the top for silver. Back in 2000 the dollar index was around 100, now it is around 75.  It looks like we have had 25% inflation in 11 years based on the strength of the dollar but there may be other factors to consider. The dollar went down 25% but silver went from $5 to $37. 

March 31,2011
ARR is going from AMEX to the New York Stock Exchange in early April. It will trade as ARR on April 5th. They closed at 7.57. The Federal government is talking about gradually pulling out of Fannie Mai and Freddie Mac over the next several years. They also want to enact laws to make loans harder such as asking for a 20% downpayment on a home. This may have impacted some prices on AGNC and IVR but they are rebounding today. The Federal government will also be selling a lot of mortgage backed securities every month, this is the life blood of REIT companies so they will be buying these securities to make money with.  Expect to see some offerings. The restrictions on new loans could cause less loans to be made but with so many securities now available it should not impact us for a long time. I dont believe any laws have been passed but I do think it is a good idea to ask 20% down; it will make for better quality loans and better mortgage backed securities = less losses for investors.

April 1, 2011 1:18am  the FED is to raise interest rates by .75 by year end.   If the lending rates do not also rise then the spread made by REITS will decrease. REITS know this is coming and have ways to hedge against this but it is a concern anyways.  Zacks lowers AGNC rating from outperform to neutral, they expect AGNC to perform like the broader market.  Volatility in mortgage backed securities may cause margin calls, AGNC may have to sell securities to pay the margin call. This has nothing to do with interest rates.

Aril 1, 2011  1:58am  Dollar index is at 76.055  +.198 which is up .25%.  
  Companies like AGNC borrow at the short term rate. A higher long term rate will not hurt AGNC. If inflation gets to be a concern then short term rates will rise.
Mortgage rates were at 4.2% on 30 year notes for the low, then they went to 5% then fell back a little. Remember no immediate rate hike was announced, it will come by the end of the year. Inflation could cause rates to go up as well. An interest rate hike is sort of like wholesale prices going up for a store, unless they can raise the consumer price then their profit is lower.

April 1 9:35am  IVR 21.73 -$.12 (-.55%)  AGNC$28.81 -$.33 (-1.13%) ARR  $7.62 +$.05 (+.53%)
Dollar index 9:35am 76.476   +.8%  Silver -.30 @ 37.30,   Gold-10.60 @1421.20.  Short term rates not changed. ACAS going global on NASDAQ under symbol MTGE as a REIT, they are related to AGNC. Other companies also filing as REITS as well. Im glad I have the ARR.

April 4 2011
The performance of AGNC outperforms IVR. This is because AGNC is bigger and in my opinion has better experience and talent.They have the experience of the former investor of Fannie Mai and he really does have some talent.   IVR does not carry any money over to the next quarter, they told me this on the phone last week. This is why their dividends are different every quarter. The company is also smaller and has less volume.   This causes their stock to have more volatility especially if there is an earnings suprise. I sold the IVR just before the discussion about interest rates then it went down. I dodged a bullet because I had a good chunk of it.  IVR fri. close: $21.61  -.24  (-1.10%)
AGNC  $29.02  -.12 (-.41%)
ARR $7.67  +.10  (+1.32%)
I still rate IVR a buy but I needed to eliminate something from my portfolio, I got a little more ARR. CIM is $3.96, a bargain but I do not want to buy it on margin right now. This would be a good entry price. I do think CIM will have better earnings next quarter.  Silver and gold are still overpriced, I still think they could come down, it is possible they may trade sideways for a period then go up but I think the world situation will improve and metals and oil will come down.  I would like to get some silver but  they are charging $40 an ounce for it and it could drop any time and be $10 an ounce cheaper. As it is I have enough to protect me but I would like to add more.  I do think the nest 3 years will be Ok for the stocks and investments, in fact I think they will be lucrative until 2015. REIT stock should be good for 2011. Monday ARR goes to NYSE.

  Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke thinks the higher commodity prices are likely to "stabelize". he doesn't share the inflation concerns that what he considers  a minority at the central bank have. he does say foreclosures will continue though.
    If foreclosures bother you dont buy to much CIM, especially at higher prices. Get AGNC instead. AGNC is down 1% today at $28.73. if there are a lot of foreclosures CIM is not insured but CIM would actually benefit from an interest rate hike because of the type of securities they have. CIM went down another cent to $3.95, IVR is up a cent to $21.62, and ARR went up 6 cents to $7.73. 

2011-4-7 5:50
ARR is doing an offering, prices aftermarket are $7.39.  I called ARR and actually got someone in the company on the phone. The offering price is $7.40.  Insiders didnt buy any stock but some got paid and had the option to take cash or take it in stock and stock was taken which is bullish for ARR. ARR will not be offered for less than $7.40 and none has been recently.


Govt shut down imminent this weekend. The federal Housing Authority (FHA) allows downpayments of 3.5% on Homes . If there is a shutdown the FHA will not insure any new loans. Some banks will cancell loans in progress of closing or not make new loans. Bank of America says it will continue to close FHA mortgages. 
    HTS hatteras  is 27.79 -8%  over last week or so, IVR 21.38  -10%   AGNC 28.50 -6%  CIM 3.96 -6%  NLY $17.41 -3%  All of these companies did offerings on top of ex dividend dates so it went down from the dividend then an offering took it down more. On top of this is the nervousness of interest rates. ARR is different, they did the offering before the ex dividend plus they pay every month. This may come out as a better combination.  Im thinking ARR will open around $7.40 tomorrow.  The dividend may keep it from going down, I do think the government shut down may be causing some nervousness in REIT stocks but I am concerned but not selling. 1:42am  WTI crude is 110.96, silver is 40.13, and gold is $1466.20. I think metals are up due to the government budget deadlock and oil. Also one last comment, keep an eye on ACAS they may be doing well enough to re-join the dividend payers. They are at $9.99 with positive EPS. They used to pay $1 per share, nothing has been announced yet though.

2011-4-14 -12:48pm
ARR 7.21 +.06, AGNC $28.56 +.519 +1.58%, IVR $21.10 +.19 +.91%, CIM $3.928 +.0383 +.98%,
Silver $41.71, Gold $1468.40.   I no longer predict a retraction in metals, it may trade sideways for a while, but I do not see any big drop, the Fed is printing to much money and has to big of a deficit.  Eventually the world will have to return to a gold standard. Conditions are still favorable for REIT stock. Zacks  gives ARR a strong Buy and AGNC a hold.

2011-4-19 10;29am
Standard and poors is negative (from stable) on U.S. debt, they could cut the current AAA credit rating. There is a 33% chance so stocks fell yesterday. ARR went up .01 yesterday, all the other REITS went down. ARR is up again today to $7.285 and AGNC is down to $28.22. Little ARR is outperforming everyone the last few days, good thing I have a lot of it. They have a low leverage rate. AGNC declares quarterly report on April 25th. Silver is at $43.36. 11:39am  gold touched $1500 but backed off. Goldman Sacks (GS) had good earnings, they beat estimates by double but is down 2.39% on the day at $150.10. GS is being interfered with by government and they were downgraded. RSI  for the year is completely oversold, is this an opportunity?

When silver reaches $50 or gold reaches $1600 expect huge drop, this cant be sustained and it could come before $50. If you do not want to sit on the metal for some years for it to go back up, which it will, then sell it before it starts to drop.  Im kind of thinking it will happen some time this spring. Only sell excess silver or gold or etfs or metals on margin.  Then we can load up on silver after it comes down. 7:43pm AGNC 28.60,CIM $3.92,  IVR $21.58, ARR $7.30.  based on ARR company website as of  April 18, 2011 current book value based on $347.28 million is $7.05. The March 31st  book value of $220.61 million came to $6.84.  Record date is the 15th of every month, most companies do not do this. REITs are starting to go back up, I am bullish on ARR and AGNC. CIM should recover.

2011-4-26 (kitco.com)

CIM $3.97 4-26
2011-4-26 AGNC EPS $1.48 and $24.97 book value up from $24.43.  House prices falling nationwide by 3%., this is why AGNC isnt as high as expected i think. Silver got very close to $50 per ounce then dropped a few dollars.  ARR closed up $.02 to $7.39 and AGNC is unchanged at $28.83.  I think ARR is more undervalued than AGNC. Earnings expectations fro 2012 are higher for ARR next year but AGNC earnings are expected to be lower.  I have much less AGNC thab ARR, it used to be the other way around. IVR closed  up .21 to $22.17. Regular earnings for AGNC was $1.3, maybe buyers are concerned about AGNC earnings, but Im not sure. 9:27pm dollar index -.191 @73.646

2011-4-27 Zacks rates AGNC a hold and ARR a strong buy. AGNC is underperforming the other REITS it seems, Zacks seeems to understand what it is but I do not. I think it has to do with the earnings, their regular earnings was only $1.30 a share, I do believe they will pay another $1.4o dividend though.

Silver and gold margin requirements have been raised. This could cause some selling. It may have--silver went from $48 to $44.55 at 8:36pm in just an hour or so. This strategy was used in the 1980s to lower prices when the Hunt brothers tried to corner the market.

11:30pm sun Bin Ladin's body is in U.S. custody, margin requirements raised for gold and silver

Arr can authorize the selling of  $1 billion of shares  http://abea-46g2gu.client.shareholder.com/secfiling.cfm?filingID=1398432-11-375  See the link for details directly from the ARR website. ARR is now trading $7.49 bid and $7.50 ask. Other REITS are down a little today as are the NASDAQ and DJIA, ARR and CIM are up.6:05pm ARR book value is $7.19 as of today. After hours trading at $7.35. They are making about what they pay out.

2011-5-4 noon Soros is selling silver, silver is below $40. ARR is at $7.52, REITS are up a little but general markets are down.3:03pm ARR +$.08 (+1.07%) to $7.58/ $7.59 aftermarket, AGNC $29.24 +.17%. Silver is $39.66.

2011-5-5Margin requirements were further raised; market is hemoraging silver.2:43pm silver $34.64. The commodities exchange in China also raised the margin rate today. Actually here the rate has been raised several times since sunday night, I think it may be sort of a snowball effect.

2011-5-6 Good price for silver to buy in the mid 30s, could go down more though. ARR ranked by Wall Street as a strong buy http://www.nasdaq.com/earnings/analyst_summary.asp?symbol=ARR&selected=ARR  ARR is at $7.59 AGNC has just about as good (A little lower) of a rating by Wallstreet.

2011-5-7 CIM used to have 50% ARM now it is 20% which exposes them more to interest rate risk but increases their spread-they will make more money for now. CIM Fri close $3.91 -$.03, ARR + $.01 $7.59, IVR -$.11 to $22.78, AGNC$29.46 +0.00.