Is silver at the bottom?

Yesterday I sold all of my AGNC and bought PSLV with the proceeds. I left enough margin to take another drop in silver without having a call. I am glad I sold the AGNC because today it is down 1.6%. Silver is up a little. I bought in at 29.95 (11.828) as PSLV and it is 30.16 now.($11.895) The markets are difficult to navigate. Dividend stocks seem to be getting hit the hardest as well as metals. Many think silver is being manipulated by big business, I am seeing comments on Forex about it as well as other articles. The Republicans refuse to let the wealthy pay tax. If the company does not make money they dont get taxed. Public programs will have to be cut or our money will be devalued; there is no money. We cant spend without having income. Public opinion is with the President, if Republicans want to be in office next term they better make a compromise.

$1.25 Dividend for AGNC

At 6:37pm AGNC ( American Capital Agency) is up after market after announcing dividend. The second half of December will be better than the first half. They will resolve the Fiscal Cliff and silver and stock will go back up. Chart is from Etrade. I suspect next yeat AGNC will pay $1 per quarter but will continue to raise the book value. The book value is $32.49 so we are below book value here. This will go up a lot when the Fiscal Cliff is resolved plus we have the dividend run up.

PSLV closed at $12.76 but is at 12.81 at 6:46.Live chart on Forex (silver) is $32.33.  Keep buying silver, this is a good deal. Silver will outpace gold in 2013.

Time to buy REITs

REIT stocks such as AGNC, ARR, MTGE, and other dividend stocks are responding to better news on negotiations about the Fiscal cliff.
At 1:20 pm Here are the prices and the book values:
                                               Book value:
AGNC   $30.91                        32.49
ARR      $ 6.79                         $7.91
MTGE   $24.22                        22.08
  ( non- REIT)                                         Net asset value:
PSEC    $10.38                           10.88   
GNT      $14.27                          13.42

The FED is bidding up the mortgage backed securities which tends to raise book value of the REITs but interest rates cause pre-payments which reduces earnings. This should cause the stock to hold value despite lower dividends. The stocks may actually go up. I expect PSEC to go up as well, they had a favorable quarterly report.

Insiders have been buying AGNC and ARR stock in the last 2 or 3 days. I think we have seen the bottom of the REIT market.

PSLV offering

Today after the close PSLV did an offering. They are buying more silver bars so they can issue more shares. PSLV often trades above Net Assett Value so the aftermarket price is down to $13.13. The NAV is $12.47. Silver was up today but the gains of the day will be lost due to the offering and I suspect the open tomorrow will be somewhere around $13.13 plus any larger move in silver if there is one. Take this as an opportunity to buy more because Sprott seems to buy just before silver goes up. The last offering was in the summer when silver hit the low for the year. This will take more silver off the market for the long term which is bullish for something there is a limited quantity of.
  
   The RNDY stock will not do well, they had a poor earnings and will have to cut the dividend in half. I took the money out and put it into silver- that is how I found out about the offering in PSLV.

PSEC has a good earnings report with extra income to both pay the dividend and reinvest some into more investments.  The book value is up $.05 from last quarter to $10.88. They closed at $10.58 but was trading at $10.64 after market.

AGNC is up .72% to $30.95; most REITS seemed to go up today.

Silver is $32.41 at 7:41 pm Gold is 1734.95.

Bad day in markets

All stocks were down except FNMA which was up 9% due to a profitable quarter. There are fears of gridlock between Republicans and democrats on the budget and taxes. There are also the Euro debt problems. It is a good time to buy silver, gold and stock. Silver will outperform gold and 2013 will be a good year for markets. All portfolios should have silver or gold or both.
   I recommend silver dimes for bullion and PSLV for silver in your brockerage account. Be careful about buying larger denominations of silver such as bars or silver dollars because China is counterfeiting bars and larger and older coins that have larger values. I also recommend avoiding numismatic coins because you will pay extra for the rarity and may not get that back. Jewelry generally is not a bullion investment; always be aware what you are paying per ounce and where spot is before buying.
   A nice gold related stock which I already hold is GNT, a Gebelli Closed End Fund. They pay a 10% annual  dividend and the pay is monthly. Much of what they trade in is gold and natural resources. This is not a speculative play, it is better held for the dividends. GGN is related to GNT and pays similar dividend based on gold and natural resources.
       PSEC is also a nice monthly payer with a 11% annual dividend. They recently had an offering a few days ago plus down again today.PSEC is not gold related; they are something like a BDC or closed end fund that works with loans to businesses.They are at a good entry point.
   REIT stocks have been down lately because of refinancing fears and I think the better ones will eventually turn around. I do not know how far they will go down but some are buying their shares back to keep values from dropping so much. AGNC is in my opinion the best run of the mortgage REITS and they have a book value of $32.49 but closed at $30.73 today. Book values are up but earning are down. I think AGNC and MTGE are a good value to enter now but maybe as part of a portfolio of unrelated stocks.
   An interesting stock to buy in small amounts is a grocery stock called RNDY or Roundys which is based in Milwaukee. They report earnings tomorrow after the close. They have paid a $.23 dividend in the past but the stock is down from the $10 range to $5.44 today with a book value of $5.61. RNDY may be down due to competition with Walmart but they have a superior brand called Our Family as well as they own Marianos stores which is premium quality like Whole Foods.
    As I have said before I believe oil and car gas will go down in price so I do not recommend investing in gas or oil.  Interest rates will also stay low; between these two people will have more money to spend and employment should improve.

 

Romney vs Obama

If Romney wins he will make many large mistakes and no money will be made in the markets. He does not have a plan. He only knows he wants to dismantle what Obama did. He will hurt America and we will lose prosperity. He may have all of the goood will in the world but if we vote him in we will look back on it as a big mistake and one of our worst presidents. I wouldn't make a good president either.  if Obama wins we will have good markets for the next 2 to 3 years. We will be pulled down some by world events or natural disasters in 2016 and we will have a few years to prepare ourselves for it if Obama wins. I also think Obama will be the better man to handle adverse conditions in 2015-2016.  The race is close but I think and hope Obama will win. astrologically speaking astrologers from Vedic astrology think Obama will win but the race is very close. This will be a very intense week coming up. I do think markets will respond adversly if Romney wins if not in the short term definitely in the long term.

Re-post of August 2, 2011

This man named Romney has been caught lieng to us already and we know it but yet people still support him. What is wrong with Americans who plan to vote for this guy?! Beware!Re-post of last year as I said I would.

Tuesday, August 2, 2011

Vote Democrat next time!

They put all of these Republicans in office recently and we got gridlock. Emanuel Cleaver of Missouri called the recent action " A sugar coated Satan sandwich"  It was either this or the economy would be thoroughly trashed.  There will be cuts on education and other programs that help the middle class but no new ways to raise revenue. The Republicans just refuse to let the wealthy pay any tax. This comment is being written at just past noon on Aug. 2 2011 but we need to remember this on election day.Last week  REIT markets were down every day because of this and yesterday AGNC went up 3%+ before the market opened just as all the REITs did. Some of you lost a lot of money because you had to sell worrying that the arguement would drag on and do permanent damage. I didnt sell my core earners but I reduced my risk and was concerned about the future, I did lose some money on what I sold. If you own a REIT you better vote for Obama next term and do not vote for anymore Republicans. These people dragged this on while our investments suffered as a result. 

3:05 central time

Debt fears in Europe made markets fall:

NASDAQ  2669.24   -75.37  or - 2.75%

DJIA         11866.77  -265.72    -2.19%

AGNC       $28.49      -.54          -1.86%

IVR            $19.68      -.51          -2.53%

ARR           $7.52        -.01          -.13%

CIM            $3.13        +.02         +.6%

Silver          $40.79     +1.53       +3.7%

Gold           $1656       +36.20     +2.1%

$$index       74.446      +.184      +.24%

Video--description of last week:  http://www.youtube.com/embed/2YDqS6oMyfw?rel=0

AGNC Earnings

The markets are closed today due to hurricane Sandy. AGNC put out the report at 3:00pm.  The new Book value is $32.49 which is a rise of $3.08 from last quarter. It closed at $32 last friday so it is below book value but trading was closed today.The FED buying  securities may be part of the reason for the rise in book value. So Bernaki deciding to buy may be the cause for at least part of the rise because he drove the prices up by entering the market.  Usually it trades about 10% over book value; it will be interesting what shares will do tomorrow especially since i have more than usual shares of AGNC in my portfolio.
The bad news is they only made $.25 per share. Apparently they sold something because they record a $3.98 comprehensive income. The have $1.52 carry-over from earlier quarters. They saved money for a 'rainy day' which is something other REITs have not done. I do believe AGNC will go up tomorrow but my guess is a good as anyones as to how high. I noticed Thomas Reuters reduced the AGNC rating from positive to neutral probably due to reduced earnings. if AGNC goes to its normal price range it could hit $35.73 or in the $35s somewhere. That would be a huge rise though; it might only go up 50 cents to a dollar because of the low earnings and fears of more bad quarters. It could catch up later if things look better for REITs in general. If the price does go back to $35 it may be in 2013 or late this year. A lot of people would have to buy,  and AGNC has a lot of shares, so I dont think the price will shoot to $35.50.  The management is doing a good job protecting our share value and this will not go un-noticed. Also AGNC has announced a 500 Million share purchase of its own shares which should raise prices some. NYL has also done this recently.
    Silver is $31.78 as of 4:36. I have noticed over the years that silver and AGNC have similar values. I think people are waiting for the elections to react to things and it will be sort of slow for the next week.
    I do feel that President Obama has done a good job and that Romney would be a bad choice because Romney does not seem to have a real plan- he only wants to dismantle everything that Pres. Obama has done and there is no plan to replace everything with. The big business men who Romney supports will be free to do whatever they want because Romney has no real plan. 

Silver prices and the dollar

Many nations are no longer using the US Dollar to do their transactions. The no longer chose to be bullied into doing what America wants them to do even concerning Iran. India is using gold to buy oil from Iran. China is also working out their own deals with Iran without using Dollars. South American nations, China and India are coming together without America to work together. If nations stop usng the dollar then I expect some to begin selling the un-needed dollars on the international market which could depress the value of the dollar. Interest rates are being kept low for 2 reasons that I can see. One is to allow people in America to refinance their homes which will also allow more home buying and alleviate the slump in home prices. It will also save people money when they refinance leaving more cash to buy other things. Higher interest rates also have to be paid to the national debt so if they go up the US would have a much bigger bill to pay. Eventually interest rates will go up and if they do, combined with the lower interest in the dollar, it could spell a large drop in the value of the dollar. If the US defaults on the debt the Elite will try to step in and control things claiming that we owe them a lot but perhaps they want to have America and other nations owe them so they will have power. People do not want these bankers and business men running America; they may lose out completely but America may have to start over again from scratch building a new economy. The most wealthy of the world are buying the debt of many nations hoping they will get control when they default. Most of the debt will never be paid back and there is no way it could be paid back unless the currency is devalued to next to nothing which is basically the same as not paying it back. If it is devalued those holding the currency will lose the value of the money they hold unless they get rid of their currency and buy land, silver or gold. This has to be done before interest rates begin to go up and before nations begin liquidating US dollars. I thnk this is a few years away but the fact that India and China are working out their own deals with each other and Iran is a sign not to be ignored. One way to disguise the drop in the dollar is to have oil go down in price. I do predict oil will go down in price significantly and not just for a month either. it will be a long term drop in price which will reduce the price of gas. Food will probably go up especially with the bad weather patterns but oil will go down to make up for some of it. Oil going down will disguise the drop in the dollar. Also lower interest rates will help people out in the real estate sector and working people will spend less on mortgages. These are quick fixes to repair the failing dollar, we will all appreciate them in coming months but years from now we still will have a huge debt that we cannot pay and the problem could come back to visit us in the future. It could come with a natural disaster or bad overseas news or time could just run out. I think 2015 to 2016 could be important years for the whole world.
    Gold and silver will be the antedotes to the collapsing currency systems and much money will flow into metals.  Any ETF that has real bars behind their stock will be good but some ETFs may or could fail. No portfolio should be without silver (and) or gold and no retirement account should be without it. People on government retirement should set aside some every month into metals-- not numismatic coins - but bullion. I recommend pre- 1964 dimes. Silver will outperform gold. I also recommend keeping some extra stock up food at home because when you see Americans fighting over the last X-box it is an indication how they would be if it was the last loaf of bread. I am not one of those who believe in the End of the world but unlike the Japanese America has a lot to learn about fear and spirituality- dispite there being a church on every corner we do not act like we know God. We will panic even on rumors. Have your necessities bought before hand. In the mean time enjoy the good economy before the storm.

REITs getting hit hard

This is due to prepayment risk due to refinancing. If someone pays off their balance when they refinance then the income of that security goes to 0 for income. Book values may rise due to Fed buying but with lower rates everyone is feared to refinance. If someone is buying something you make money on could it drive prices up for what you need to replace what is not earning anymore? 

Silver and gold are stable; they have taken a rest for a while from the fast rise in September. Obama would want oil down while Romney wants higher oil. The Republicans would like to see America financially collapse while Obama is in power and they have tried hard to hurt our economy in the last years. I believe Oil will significantly go down. Metals will go up in the long term.

Oil to come down significantly

Oil is quite high as of lately but it will come down going towards $30 a barrel. Do not invest in oil related energy. High oil would and has held back the economy and it's decrease will help the economy allowing stocks to rise. The fall of oil is related to the fall of the Iran currency. There could be instability in Iran. October is not a good month to buy extra stock or metals but they will not drop as much as oil. AGNC is down more today than ARR; they are down 1.73% (11:09am) while ARR is down .39%.  AGNC had a poor quarter last quarter and ARR is due for a dividend tomorrow. In the long term stocks and metals will continue up but Oil will not go up.

Re-post of last year as I said I would.

Tuesday, August 2, 2011

Vote Democrat next time!

They put all of these Republicans in office recently and we got gridlock. Emanuel Cleaver of Missouri called the recent action " A sugar coated Satan sandwich"  It was either this or the economy would be thoroughly trashed.  There will be cuts on education and other programs that help the middle class but no new ways to raise revenue. The Republicans just refuse to let the wealthy pay any tax. This comment is being written at just past noon on Aug. 2 2011 but we need to remember this on election day.Last week  REIT markets were down every day because of this and yesterday AGNC went up 3%+ before the market opened just as all the REITs did. Some of you lost a lot of money because you had to sell worrying that the arguement would drag on and do permanent damage. I didnt sell my core earners but I reduced my risk and was concerned about the future, I did lose some money on what I sold. If you own a REIT you better vote for Obama next term and do not vote for anymore Republicans. These people dragged this on while our investments suffered as a result. 

3:05 central time

Debt fears in Europe made markets fall:

NASDAQ  2669.24   -75.37  or - 2.75%

DJIA         11866.77  -265.72    -2.19%

AGNC       $28.49      -.54          -1.86%

IVR            $19.68      -.51          -2.53%

ARR           $7.52        -.01          -.13%

CIM            $3.13        +.02         +.6%

Silver          $40.79     +1.53       +3.7%

Gold           $1656       +36.20     +2.1%

$$index       74.446      +.184      +.24%

Video--description of last week:  http://www.youtube.com/embed/2YDqS6oMyfw?rel=0

Why I have PSLV

Just before the recent rise in silver prices I bought PSLV (The Sprott Fund) because I felt that the bottom of the market had been passed.  There is to much talk of scandal with big bankers shorting silver. I presume they are using SLV to short the market. You cannot short PSLV. I do not know for sure but it almost seems more silver is being ( or was) shorted than what exists. It took a month or more for Sprott to finally get his silver for PSLV. They had an offering in the mid part of the summer. I saw that the NAV or net assett value was was as close to closing prices as it ever has been at around - 2.5% above NAV. PSLV traded 15% to 20% higher than NAV when silver was at $48 2011.  With PSLV there is physical silver stored in Canada and it seems there is more certainty your shares of silver are actually backed by silver bars in PSLV's possession. If we have a run on physical silver I will have less to worry about with the Sprott fund PSLV.  I also do not have to store it in my house and it is easy to sell. I saved a watchlist of my silver using both PSLV and SLV on the day I bought the PSLV. I am 1.29 % ahead by using PSLV because it it is worth more than NAV now. (PSLV outperformed SLV which is a bonus for me) When they do offerings they push the price closer to NAV but that is when they buy more silver. They also did it in January and the price dropped something like 10% one day because of the offering. As NAV goes up further past NAV this is a risk- that there could be an offering. I bought it right after an offering though so Im probably Ok for a while. For those who want silver bullion without the risk of theft I do suggest PSLV over SLV. SLV is a bigger outfit with heavier volume than PSLV but the big banks are playing there and I cant tell where their silver is that the shares represent. If there arises a problem with availability of silver bullion I feel safer with PSLV.
      Silver could be $37 in October. Perhaps it could reach record highs next year. It will outpace gold and it has been.

Spasm for silver shorts

The bull market for stocks and silver has began. This will last until 2015.On Friday Bernaki opened his mouth and silver dropped some but the tongue moved and silver went up over 4%. This is only due to jaw jacking, nothing has been done yet but QE-3 looks likely now.  Silver outpaced gold as I expected and this trend will continue. Stocks will hit record highs. Have fun everybody, this bull market will be a once in a lifetime experience. REIT stock seems to also be performing well except CIM.
   MTGE and AGNC had lower earnings last quarter but AGNC has money in reserve. Dividends will soon be announced by both. I expect another $1.25 dividend to be announced by AGNC any day now. 

Insider Buy in AGNC

Gary Kain, the president of AGNC, bought 20,000 AGNC on Oct. 7th 2012. This guy frequently buys at oppurtune times. He also paid $32.75 so he hit the bottom of the market. AGNC took a loss for the quarter this time.

Silver margins reduced by 11%

Last year they were raising them now they must see silver as less risky. They are willing to loan you more of their money to buy silver now. China has been buying gold lately, just in big enough quantities to stay under the radar, South Korea buying also. The bankers seem to think gold is on its way up.

ARR does offering tonight

ARR has dropped ro $7.46 after hours from the $7.70 close.  They are selling 50 million shares of common stock. I think they have had 9 offerings this last year.

AGNC and FTR

AGNC has been doing very well lately but I do notice some insider sells recently made. The earnings comes out today after the close. Silver is kind of neutral the last few days. There is reported to be more shorted than exists by some commentators. They have to eventually buy it back or else take delivery. I do not know if we just simply do not understand how the market works or if some kind of an accident with silver will eventually occurr. Obviously they do not want us to understand how it works but I do not see how you can short all of the shares of something. I wonder what a short squeeze would be like in silver?  Be careful trading the ETFs especially SLV. Also  be careful with the physical because someone could steal it on you.
   FTR is one of those stocks that seems to have hit bottom and is going back up. They made $.08 cents a share or 2 cents over expectations. They also seem to be doing a lot of contracts that indicate future growth. They suffered from some loss of business but seem to havce bought some contracts from Verizon. I got FTR at $3.68 and it is $4.37 now in the afternoon. It still may go up more. FTR also has a 10.5% dividend that they just declared a few days ago.

Euro and silver

I think the Euro will survive until 2015 then it will soon crash. In 2 weeks silver and gold will begin to go up. AGNC has been doing very well. The next 2 or 3 years will be good so make your money because afterwards will be bad times. China and the Euro will implode and there will be natural disasters in coastal areas. Crops could be poor in 2014. The weather may cause more drought. Stocks should hit record highs in next 2 years. Last week PSLV got a haircut in the guise of an offering- went down 3 0r 4 %.

VPLM

I contacted a man named Gavin in Canada from the company that VPLM bought the patents. There is question in the VPLM message board about the validity of the trade. The patents do exist and 2 were described to me over the phone. I spent an hour looking for this information and yes the company does exist.
   The company is a Canadian Vancouver company called Digifonica; they last traded at $.04 in April. They had a $800,000 debt. The former Director was given the patents to sell to pay off the debt. Gavin thinks the patents were definitely worth a lot more than $800,000. Gavin knows the director of Digifonics.  Digifonics Gibraltar held the patents. 
here is a partial description of 2 of them:
1. "RBR" " Strong patent" very advanced technology
2.  Network Voip calls to GSM  network to Wi-Fi network

It looks like the patents were given to VPLM for shares of VPLM. The debt could likely be paid back at down  ( we speculated on) to  10% or 25% of the original loan. I have heard of this  done with credit cards. 
if I get more information I will post it on my blog. This information is from notes I took while on the phone.

My take on the transaction:  The patents are real and useful. Stock was given for the patents. The patents could make money for VPLM. I do not know when the shares would be sold but they do have a debt to pay.

BMNM why it is down

BMNM has a good book value but are short $10 million dollars of which the recent earnings are a small fraction. They will not be paying dividends for a while but they are worth keeping an eye on for future quarters. Their book value is ok but the stock has very low volume.
  Silver still looks negative in some ways but there may be some kind of a rebound. I am more bullish on FNMA than silver. AGNC is also doing very well. I do believe real estate is recovering and will continue the second half of this year.

FNMA earns $2.72 Billion Bmnm a value too

Silver is down again today. I checked my email and got news that FNMA (Fannie Mae ) made 2.72 billion dollars this quarter and they do not need any more taxpayer money. This is the first time they made real money since 2007.I bought some right away and rode the market up to $.30 close. Watching the trade i see there are a lot of people perhaps like myself entering what may be a chance to ride the real estate recovery up. Basically I sold silver etf to buy FNMA. I put less money into FNMA than I had in silver but dont need to tie up as much money to get some decent exposure to a chance to make money. Mahendra Sharma was off on his predictions on silver and for June he is bearish but he seems to be right about FNMA. All of the REITs are outperforming silver right now. This is an election year and statistically speaking silver has gone down on election years. I still think that silver is oversold but I am more bullish on real estate. Bmnm or Bimini Capital has a book value of $.61 and is going for $.25 per share. Last year they had a hard year but their recent quarter is positive again. The volume is low but they could bring back the dividend if they get another positive quarter. The price is half of book value; it is certainly something to look into with a recovering real estate market.

Silver ETF oversold

This is an Etrade chart from around 9:30 am on May 8th 2012. Click the chart to enlarge it. Are we at the bottom?  It is as oversold as it was in December but the price is not as low as it went back then. It has been a rough year so far for silver traders. I do not think now is a good time to sell silver. I do realize it could go lower but on all accounts SLV is oversold. (SLV is 28.48 now )

Silver and gold went up when the dollar went up and oil went down. Usually metals go opposite of the dollar and along with oil. At the beginning of Friday silver did drop but it quickly recovered and went up. The general markets were down 1 to 2%. This is kind of bullish for silver and gold.
Silver is at $30.34 (Kitco) + $.27
Oil (WTI crude) is $98.59 down around $3
Dollar Index $79.60  +.32
Gold $1642.10  +6.30

Silver is still falling but i think the end is near for the drop. In mid May i think it will turn around. There are no short positions below $21. I do not think it will go more than $2 lower than it is. The dollar index is 79.185 at 10:21 am on May 2nd. It is up .46% today but may be done with the rise. It was over 81 in mid January so it is starting to go down. The second half of the year will be much better for silver than the first, now is a good time to enter the silver market. Mahendra was off on his predictions as far as timing but in the long run it will happen. He predicted silver to run to $42 by the end of May. I think it will turn around on or near the 18th of May and start going up.It will probably still go to $42 but a little later then correct some then resume up again for a new high. Basically both silver and gold are oversold (silver is at $30.53 and gold is at $1650.20 at11:04 AM) Silver will outpace gold in the rise. European markets seem to be pulling on our markets some but our markets seem to be rebounding today.
   AGNC puts out their quarterly report today after the markets close, I think they will do reasonably well. At 10:29 they are at $31.08 near record highs down a little on the day. I wouldnt want to buy at this level though. I got mine in the $27s range and a little at 29s. They are a good long term investment.  FNMA is at $.28 looks ok on the chart- it is not below the trend line so it seems to be on track. It just got to high earlier so it is still on an uptrend. It seems to be showing some strength in daily trades with some big volume sells met with adequate buyers. It seems people are interested and entering FNMA. IVR and ARR are a little weaker; they had a dividend haircut and their stock dropped. AGNC had the same haircut but they planned better and book value went up so no one was disappointed. AGNC also keeps some extra money aside for more stability. I am impressed with how AGNC manages their company. AGNC has even outperformed NLY which was down earlier this year but rebounded some but not as good of performance as AGNC. NLY had to have a similar dividend haircut but lost some stock value; NLY is the oldest REIT. All of these companies have different securities though and Im sure they are a challenge to manage; they all make money.

AGNC announced the earnings at like 3:03pm:  1st Quarter Earnings per share is $2.66; 29.06 net book value and $2.44 comprehensive income per share. This is much more than I expected. Last quarter was $.99 earnings per share. They paid a $1.25 dividend last quarter-- we just got it a few days ago. I bought 100 shares at $31.38 and it is at 31.50 now at 3:17pm. This is a very good earnings.  The book value increased $1.35 since last quarter.
 
After hours buy list:  http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/agnc/after-hours  You can see your purchase on this list-- the price is to $31.84 recently. 31.38 is about where it would be at 1.08 times new book value but they have extra money to boot.

NLY has a $.92 EPS which is good news; up from the 50s and 60s of previous quarters but in line with a year ago.

Margin requirements

Margin requirements for silver were lowered last week. The Fed will eventually have to print more money to boost the economy. Silver is down $.99 today. FNMA is down 2 to 3% today. NASDAQ is down 1 and 1/2% due to Europe and China concerns. Mahendra has been innacurate in Silver price predictions. I think we should wait to buy silver on margin until mid May or at least early May.

5:30pm:  FNMA closed at $.285 down .35% and AGNC is up .31% at $30.715.  NASDAQ is down 1% so FNMA is showing some strength so when the market goes up there should be a gain. SLV closed at $29.97 and silver Kitco is at $30.85 at 5:36pm.

Song to Mr president

http://youtu.be/32I6nk8hBGE

Interest rates down

The 30 year fixed is 3.88% down from 3.98%.  The 15 year is 3.11% which is a record low. 9:35 am thurs.

hammer candle on FNMA

Charts are from Etrade.

Yersterday there was a tug of war between buyers and sellers. Today a bullish trend may be in place. Despite the market being down over 1 1/2% FNMA closed up a little to $.27. there was even someone trying to sell 1,608,800 shares at .27 starting around 2:00 pm.The RSI and Stockastics are also pretty well used up as well. I think this is bullish for FNMA;  it may have hit its low yesterday.

My predictions of the markets

the second half of April will be better than the first half, I think silver and FNMA will do better. Interest rates are down a little with long term rates at 3.99% now.The second half of the year will be better than the first half.

Mortgage rates going above 4%

Mortgage rates are going up with 30 year fixed mortgages above 4% at 4.08%. 15 year fixed mortgages are at 3.30% from 3.16%. They have been below 4% since october 2011.  Adjustable rate mortgages are also up to 2.96% from 2.83%.  Rising interest rates tend to decrease prepayment risk so this is good for REITs.
   Silver is rebounding up $.60 today to $32.84 at 4:10 pm monday. it is a good time to enter the silver market. 

ARR offering

Just minutes ago ARR did an offering after hours and the share price is 6.93 as of 4:47pm. It closed at 7.11. The next 3 months of dividends will be $.10 each. Zacks lists ARR as a "sell" but that is at the higher price. Silver is  working its way up since last night. 4:51pm Kitco $33.90 and SLV $32.84 aftermarket with a day close at $32.85.

AGNC does secondary offering-- Comment on FNMA

At 4:31 the shares are $29.56 down 2.35 % aftermarket. I do not feel this is a big drop yet.  54 million shares are being offered. Silver is rebounding and is at $32.50 at 4:33 pm. One way to hedge prepayment risk that occurrs with REITs like AGNC and CIM or ARR is to buy FNMA. FNMA is helped by any aid to the public or refinance help given to homeowners. The dividends of REITs could be lower but FNMA shares may go up thus balancing your portfolio but keep in mind FNMA has a higher risk grade but it seems the government will not let them fail. FNMA could easily reach $1 by the end of the year so a small investment at 29 or 30 cents a share could go a long way. Now is also a good time for people to pick up some silver bullion or SLV especially if they do not have any yet.

J.P. Morgan buying Silver

J.P.  Morgan has bought more silver this year than all of 2011. This could be very bullish for silver. Here is a link to the article:

http://acrossthestreetnet.wordpress.com/2012/03/02/what-really-happened-this-week-in-gold-and-silver/

Silver down more; PSEC also down

PSEC is still up over 20% since late fall though.  Here is a song that reminds me of FNMA (Fannie Mae) about the tax bailout of them and the big banks:
<iframe width="420" height="315" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/oSQi2ktRXtg" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

Silver will be going up now.

The best time to get back in the silver market is this past Friday. Silver will go back up to 2012 highs. Buy stock market on dips. I do not recommend having stock without some silver and or gold and I prefer silver over gold. I do believe CIM will recover- a dividend of $.11 was declared. IVR, AGNC and CIM have very good ratings. FNMA and FMCC will also recover to $1 range this year. They are around $.318 now.

Silver down 6%

I wonder if they raised margin requirements to suppress prices. Gold is also down sharply. The US agrees to ship food to North Korea. I will add more news as I find it.

G-20 asks Europe to put more money in the pot and they will add 2 trillion to bail out Europe.

 http://finance.yahoo.com/news/euro-zone-deal-firewall-awaits-001447349.html

I suspect this is a sell-off of paper silver rather than bullion. This coming friday will be a good day to have your silver purchases made by, after that in a week or 2 it will be back up again.

IVR insider buy; Silver up 4.28%

Insider buy:     http://www.snl.com/irweblinkx/ShowFile.aspx?Output=XML&KeyFile=12792219&Format=XML

oil backed off some but silver went up 4.28% to $36.91. Gold is up 1.04%. This is what Mahendra predicted---silver will outpace gold!

Citigroup admits to defrauding FNMA and FMCC

Here is the link: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-02-22/citigroup-defrauded-fannie-freddie-whistle-blower-claims.html
They will have to fork over the money.

AGNC declares dividend early

The quarterly report came out tonight; some good news and some bad.  On December 31st Book value was raised $.80 from $26.90 to $27.71. In 2011 Book value went up $9.07 total.  The value of the mortgage backed securities went up in value.   AGNC has a net income of $.99 this recent quarter plus $.80 of undistributed income.  The first dividend of 2012 will be ex dividend on March 5th payable to record holders on April 27th. The amount will be $1.25 down from $1.40.  The repo rates were higher.  I think the higher book value will absorb much or most of the disappointment of the lower dividend and I think management did very well managing it.

FNMA went up like 17% today; this was predicted by Vedic astrology and this is only the beginning; the real estate markets will rebound in 2012.  Silver at this time of 7:00 pm is unchanged $ slightly up maybe $33.69 Kitco. 

Silver to fight cancer

Silver has been found in England to combat cancer similar to chemotherapy but with fewer side effects. here is a link to the article:  http://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-2095610/Silver-bullet-cancer-Metal-kill-tumours-better-chemotherapy-fewer-effects.html?ito=feeds-newsxml

In the short term silver and stocks may correct some but in the 2012 year it will go up.

Another offering for ARR silver up

Last night ARR offered 26 million shares of common stock. As of 9:49 am ARR is at $7.03. 
Silver is $33.59 but was $34.20 just minutes ago. I feel 2012 will be good for silver- especially the second half of the year perhaps.

PSLV gets a haircut

PSLV

SLV

PSLV dropped 10% due to being bid up to much. I think shares were put out on the market as an offering. More silver was bought and shares were put on the market. The % over NAV is around 10% now. When you buy this fund the NAV has to be considered before you buy, I do believe it is safe to buy but dont buy much over NAV. It shouldnt go below NAV because silver backs it. High volume bidding raised the price over NAV.  In a sence the hair grew to fast and it got a haircut. 

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Short term bear market

The next 10 days will be bearish for stocks and metals- silver and gold but 2012 will see large gains for stocks and metals especially silver.
India and China are selling gold but America is buying it. In 1991 the Rouble failed because they didnt have enough gold; America is doing good for itself by buying gold. Germany has the 2nd  largest gold holding in the world.

$1550 bottom for gold in 2012
$26.80  bottom for silver in 2012

If you buy equal amounts of silver and gold at the same time you will make double what gold makes with the silver. I highly recommend silver over gold.

Housing values will recover. FMCC and FNMA may go back up; REIT portfolio  values should go up as well. How much the portfolio is worth will go up but earnings I am not certain about with low interest rates and refinancing risk. 

Eoro should stabelize after a few weeks. Eventually years from now it will collapse though.

Time to buy PSLV, or SLV or bullion

This is the Sprott silver ETF backed by silver bars. Sprott does not short his own fund either, he is a believer in silver. Silver, gold, the US  Dollar and US  stocks will move up together in 2012. People from foreign countries will be diversifying their portfolios with gold and silver this year. American stocks will be doing well, not sure about foreign stocks, I do feel the American markets will outperform foreign markets. ARR did an offering last night; they are down around or a littover 1%. They did an offering last month as well but the price is not down much this time. I got a 3% or more discount on the stock  in December.

what is the difference between SLV and PSLV? 
Both are based on silver bullion but PSLV is trading at a 25% to 27% premium to Net Asset Value (NAV).  I am not sure why this happened but I think it gradually happened over time. SLV does tend to follow the physical market better. The volume of SLV is greater and this especially shows up in after market trading so PSLV is not as liquid as SLV but in the day they both trade normal. After market you basically cannot sell PSLV because there are not enough buyers. PSLV has a lower numerical value which may be a plus for day trading. ( you can buy more shares for $100 than SLV) The people who run PSLV may be truly pro silver and honest but people are paying more for the fund than what it is worth. Another difference is PSLV cannot be directly shorted like stocks can. This may be part of the reason for the premium over NAV.

Prepayment Risk, silver at bottom of trading range?

There is talk of prepayment risk in REIT sector. Prepayments are up in the last 3 months. It is something to watch but the rise has flattened out.  Some people are paying off their mortgages with new low interest mortgages. Otherwize REITs are doing well especially AGNC which is the highest rated.  ARR will be paying $.11 per month for Jan, Feb, and March. CIM is still having insider buys which is getting to normal for them now-- they seem to buy their own stock a lot in the last year. I do believe CIM and IVR has bottomed out but AGNC is a better investment because they have better experience and good track record.

It is time to enter the silver market. Silver will go up in 2012, we have seen a bottom in the market. The Euro-crisis has been the preassure on silver prices to the downside. Yesterday the employment situation seems to be improving but the Euro situation stold its thunder. Silver went down a little but last week it went up 7% which most of that gain is still there.  I do not yet recommend leveraging silver yet but if you have cash silver is an excellent investment now.  Those who do leverage silver now could stand to make a lot of money, I believe we are at the bottom of the market.  Silver is oversold and the problems in the US and other governments are not solved and inflation will surly be here in 2013 and likely 2012 with higher gas prices.  Portfolios without silver will be missing out on the silver fun but stocks will do well as well. All portfolios should have silver and or gold of 25% to 50%. 5% of a portfolio like was suggested 20 years ago is simply not enough and almost foolish. Silver will be over $100 an ounce in 2 to 3 years. Be careful where you buy it; China is flooding America with counterfeit bars and coins-- see my earlier posts for details.