Saturday, January 7, 2012

Prepayment Risk, silver at bottom of trading range?

There is talk of prepayment risk in REIT sector. Prepayments are up in the last 3 months. It is something to watch but the rise has flattened out.  Some people are paying off their mortgages with new low interest mortgages. Otherwize REITs are doing well especially AGNC which is the highest rated.  ARR will be paying $.11 per month for Jan, Feb, and March. CIM is still having insider buys which is getting to normal for them now-- they seem to buy their own stock a lot in the last year. I do believe CIM and IVR has bottomed out but AGNC is a better investment because they have better experience and good track record.

It is time to enter the silver market. Silver will go up in 2012, we have seen a bottom in the market. The Euro-crisis has been the preassure on silver prices to the downside. Yesterday the employment situation seems to be improving but the Euro situation stold its thunder. Silver went down a little but last week it went up 7% which most of that gain is still there.  I do not yet recommend leveraging silver yet but if you have cash silver is an excellent investment now.  Those who do leverage silver now could stand to make a lot of money, I believe we are at the bottom of the market.  Silver is oversold and the problems in the US and other governments are not solved and inflation will surly be here in 2013 and likely 2012 with higher gas prices.  Portfolios without silver will be missing out on the silver fun but stocks will do well as well. All portfolios should have silver and or gold of 25% to 50%. 5% of a portfolio like was suggested 20 years ago is simply not enough and almost foolish. Silver will be over $100 an ounce in 2 to 3 years. Be careful where you buy it; China is flooding America with counterfeit bars and coins-- see my earlier posts for details.

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