Wednesday, May 2, 2012

Silver is still falling but i think the end is near for the drop. In mid May i think it will turn around. There are no short positions below $21. I do not think it will go more than $2 lower than it is. The dollar index is 79.185 at 10:21 am on May 2nd. It is up .46% today but may be done with the rise. It was over 81 in mid January so it is starting to go down. The second half of the year will be much better for silver than the first, now is a good time to enter the silver market. Mahendra was off on his predictions as far as timing but in the long run it will happen. He predicted silver to run to $42 by the end of May. I think it will turn around on or near the 18th of May and start going up.It will probably still go to $42 but a little later then correct some then resume up again for a new high. Basically both silver and gold are oversold (silver is at $30.53 and gold is at $1650.20 at11:04 AM) Silver will outpace gold in the rise. European markets seem to be pulling on our markets some but our markets seem to be rebounding today.
   AGNC puts out their quarterly report today after the markets close, I think they will do reasonably well. At 10:29 they are at $31.08 near record highs down a little on the day. I wouldnt want to buy at this level though. I got mine in the $27s range and a little at 29s. They are a good long term investment.  FNMA is at $.28 looks ok on the chart- it is not below the trend line so it seems to be on track. It just got to high earlier so it is still on an uptrend. It seems to be showing some strength in daily trades with some big volume sells met with adequate buyers. It seems people are interested and entering FNMA. IVR and ARR are a little weaker; they had a dividend haircut and their stock dropped. AGNC had the same haircut but they planned better and book value went up so no one was disappointed. AGNC also keeps some extra money aside for more stability. I am impressed with how AGNC manages their company. AGNC has even outperformed NLY which was down earlier this year but rebounded some but not as good of performance as AGNC. NLY had to have a similar dividend haircut but lost some stock value; NLY is the oldest REIT. All of these companies have different securities though and Im sure they are a challenge to manage; they all make money.

AGNC announced the earnings at like 3:03pm:  1st Quarter Earnings per share is $2.66; 29.06 net book value and $2.44 comprehensive income per share. This is much more than I expected. Last quarter was $.99 earnings per share. They paid a $1.25 dividend last quarter-- we just got it a few days ago. I bought 100 shares at $31.38 and it is at 31.50 now at 3:17pm. This is a very good earnings.  The book value increased $1.35 since last quarter.
After hours buy list:  You can see your purchase on this list-- the price is to $31.84 recently. 31.38 is about where it would be at 1.08 times new book value but they have extra money to boot.

NLY has a $.92 EPS which is good news; up from the 50s and 60s of previous quarters but in line with a year ago.

No comments:

Post a Comment