Nickels

The federal government is taking bids to change the content of the nickel. Currently the nickel is worth $.061 (bullion of copper and nickel) and it costs $.077 to produce a nickel by the mint.  Pre 1982 pennies are worth  $.0273 each.  The zinc pennies currently made are worth $.006 or 6/10 of a cent. This is all a result of inflation; the metals aren't really going up that much, the dollar is going down in value.  How long will it be until we are saving the zinc pennies?  it seems to me silver and gold are the only effective means to defend yourself against this erosion in the value of money. It almost seems silver and gold are going up faster than inflation so they seem like an investment as a bonus. If you do not like looking through pennies then get your nickels before they change them because afterwards you may have to search through them and you may have to look by the date to get the good ones because otherwize they may look the same on the surface. I think they may do the change in 2012.  Could nickel and or copper be the next metals to gain market attention? It may be worth having a little on hand as a store of wealth for small purchases.

   Nickels are 75% copper and 25% nickel. The pre 1982 pennies are 95% copper. InfoMine.com has a lot of different commodity charts to look at.  Click on the images to enlarge.

VPLM stock

VPLM is at $.0068. I talked to the founder of the company Richard Kipping and he thinks the stock is down because the market is down so much which makes sence.  I told him Im looking for insider trades on this company. He has stock but is retired from the company, he also said some people he knows have bought some VPLM stock. VPLM is at a record low right now, do you think it is an opportunity?  If you look at a 5 year chart the RSI is the lowest today it has been in 5 years. Click on the chart to get a bigger picture. The charts are from Etrade.com    VPLM bought Call Arc. You can get free or enexpensive international calls on your cell phone or computer. Basically you can fill out forms to get free minutes or you can buy minutes-- you can also get others in for credits. Here is a video on how to do it:  http://mypointsphone.com/how.php  The purchase of Call Arc was recently by VPLM , the name will be changed to My Points Phone website is http://callarc.com/

Refinancing possibility

9:50am President Obama may let homeowners refinance their home loans. The interest rates are falling. This could be bad for REITs. I sold everything and they are still coming down. Here is a link:  http://www.cnbc.com/id/44269404

Margin requirements were raised on gold which caused the fall in price a few days ago.

11:03pm   Put 2/3 of portfolio to silver and gold--mostly silver. The rest has some REITs including 600 ARR and no CIM.  I still think CIM is a good buy but my portfolio of REITs is smaller and ther is no room for the risk.  ARR may be better than CIM, they have a $-.14 for last quarter but higher earnings at other times and they have decent ratings.  I still say it is odd how they reported the earnings but the stock outperforms CIM and pays monthly. Gold margins were raised from $7500 to $9450 on the futures market. I do not think we are going into another recession but REITs may see some turbulance. If the market picks up silver may go up with the market and we may see some inflation. After all it is an industrial metal. Next year at this time this will be just a memory. Silver and gold have much higher to go, we are not at the end of the bull market and Gold is not in a bubble.  There could be a sell of off of some gold to re-enter the stock market and I have much less of it than silver. They may come down some but silver is used in industry and until we fix the broken system both will go up steadily over the long run.

Fitch affirms AAA rating on US debt

They disagree with S and P; they have a stable outlook on the AAA rating.  They will re-visit the decision at the end of 2011 and could go negative if lawmakers fail to save the $2.1 Trillion the agreed on. Of course Republicans blame President Obama for the S and P downgrade a few weeks ago. I think president Bush is the most to blame and the Republicans seem to want to spend but take in no taxes.  They refuse to let the rich pay any taxes and definitely not the super rich or corporations.  Then when we realize we are to far in debt the benefits to the poor and middle class are on the chopping block just like here in Wisconsin with Governot Walker.   I predict that president Obama will get a second term but I think it will turn him gray. We should pray for him even if we disagree with him. as I said before September will be better than August and 2012 will be better than 2011.

Long term interest rates are falling

This could have an impact on fixed rate REITs like AGNC. 10 year bonds are down 125 basis points. I noticed the charts on more long term loans are going down. Some people may be refinancing loans as well which means some securities may be paid off early which is less  income for companies like AGNC. AGNC is down 2% today but CMO is up almost 1%.  This may be one example why you should hold different types of REITs.

Ratings innacurate?

The US claims mortgage backed securities ratings by Standard and Poors may be over-rated. Article:  http://www.cnbc.com/id/44184348    REITs lost most of their recent gains, general market( NASDAQ) is also down 4.92% at 12:38pm cts.

1:51pm  a little good news:  WTI crude oil is down 6.04% to 82.29. Car gas should come down. Most of the market moves today are from problems in Europe.

IVR announces offering

IVR announced an offering of 20 million shares at $18.39 which is considered current  book value. This is an increase of shares by 21%. At 6:50 pm the share price after hours is $18.38.  IVR closed at $19.29. I notices all of the REITs are down aftermarket. Some are down over 1%--they pretty much gave up the gains they made today. 

Buy S and P or US markets after Sept 2011

American indexes will reach all time highs -- DOW to 36,000 in the next 4 years.  Buy from end of September 2011.-- Mahendra.  In the mean time foreign markets will have a tougher ride than the US.

Why buy silver or gold?

I have a video here that explains the danger of unprotected stocks.  We need to realize the danger or risk we have. I propose a solution of buying silver or gold to protect your stock or mutual funds or any other investments. I feel that silver is a better choice. See my page on how to buy silver and gold. here is the video:  http://youtu.be/nonySiAuDJU   I do not feel that a major crash is imminent but it could come at any time. Personally I think Europe could have more problems but I think September will be Ok or at least a good time to get back into the markets.  I do not think Europe will bring down the world economy.  The problems we sweep under the rug today will re-surface if we have other suprise problems.   I do think in years to come a natural disaster could bring the world to panic.  Markets will drop like the Japanese market dropped earlier this year but it could be worse if the disaster hits the USA.  There will be no warning so you need to be prepared in advance.  We will have a number of good years and it will be the last thing on peoples minds then it will suddenly happen and the sell off in the stock markets will be devestating.  Even in good times be careful how much you margin, you may wake up to margin calls because of a suprise.  I encourage silver and gold because the fiat currency we have could also suffer, it would be good to have cash too. I am keeping some in the form of nickels because they are allready worth 6 or 7 cents a coin.  Pennies before 1982 are worth more than face value as well but you need to look through the pennies. For the values of all coins from the USA and Canada see   http://www.coinflation.com/coin_calculators.html

Paper money is good in small amounts, it may lose value though due to inflation.  The zinc pennies are worth about  2/3 of a penny and quarters are worth only 8 or 9 cents. Nickels are the best form of cash, you do not have to look through them yet and if you need the money you can take them back to the bank.  If you do not have at least 10% of your investments in silver or gold you are in danger. You could buy ETFs, bars, or coins.Keep in mind people may sell silver to pay stock margins especially if silver is high so they may be volatility but in the long run silver and gold will be the best investments to have to protect your net value. I do not recommend large bars. Stay below 100 oz. bars unless you have a lot of money. See my page on how to buy and sell silver and gold.

More insider buys at CIM, and RSO

Even their kids are buying it. 1.    http://investor.chimerareit.com/ShowFile.aspx?Output=XML&KeyFile=11607152&Format=XML

2.  http://investor.chimerareit.com/ShowFile.aspx?Output=XML&KeyFile=11606844&Format=XML

3. Since 2011-8-4 RSO has had 26,000 shares bought by insiders. The company deals in commercial real estate. This company isnt as good as AGNC or CMO in ratings but is worth a small investment.

Markets seem to have calmed down but many of the good deals are bought up. It almost seems like it is back to normal prices. Europe could create more volatility in our markets yet, some of the weaker companies could come back down. With a promise of low rates until 2013 companies like AGNC, NLY, and CMO will not come down much anymore unless they have an offering which they did some in the summer already. In another month most of these companies will be pregnant with dividends, they all had decent earnings, RSO was kind of weak though with $.11/share. 

Markets up; REITS up 10+%

REITs:

AGNC    $29.77          + $3.04       +11.39%

CMO      $12.86          +1.41          +12.31%

CIM       $3.16             +.31            +10.88%

IVR       $18.69            +1.74          +10.27%

ARR      $7.58              +.54            +7.67%

Closed End Funds:

GNT     $16.25            +.664          +4.26%

NCZ     $7.99              +.34            +4.44%

NASDAQ  $2482.52   +124.83     +5.29%

Commodities:

11:06pm CTS

Silver $38.25

Gold  $1757.10

WTI Crude   $82.05     +2.75         +3.47%

$$ Index  73.988        -.617             -.79%

Chart for CIM insider buys, on 2011-8-3 200,000 shares were purchased by insiders.I think CIM is safe to buy now in the low $3 range.The NAV is $3.08, the book value is $3.35

AGNC 2011-8-9 1 day chart to close

AGNC  3 months to 2011-8-9 (Etrade Charts)

I decided to take more cash out of my portfolio so I sold the Closed End Funds. I took about half of the money and put it into REITs  and left the rest cash. Right after that the FED announced that interest rates will stay down until 2013 because the economy is so slow in recovering. That news caused all the REITs to go up even more at a steeper rise.  NCZ closed at what I sold it for and GNT only went up a little, the NAV for GNT  is $ 15.92. Etrade lists GNT as a 40 risk but the performance is not as good as it should be. 

Price of gold surpasses platinum

At 1:26 am tuesday gold is at $1748

                            Platinum is at $1711

                               Silver is at $38.82

Markets are down 2 to 3% in Asia--were down much more than that a few hours ago. This due to the Sand P downgrade of the US debt and the European debt situation. People are selling stocks and buying gold.

Stocks took a beating from downgrade

the Sand P downgrade also came to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac securities which further supressed REIT stock.  AGNC in my opinion is one of the best REITs out there. They closed at $26.73 losing $1.62 or 5.71%. AGNC's book value is $26.76.  Most dividend plays are at or below NAV or book value right now. There may be some bargains here but caution is advised, the market could drop more. I recommend any stock purchase should be accompanied by some silver or gold to protect your long term net value. At 5:24pm today silver was at $39.09, I am aware silver could come down considerably but I do not think it will be to long until we see $50 silver again. Do not buy physical silver unless you plan to keep it for 2 or 3 years, buy ETFs for shorter term holdings.

S+P lowers US credit rating

The S and P lowered the US credit rating from AAA to AA+ between midnight and 1am saturday morning on Aug. 6th.  This could cause bond rates to go up. This may make money more expensive to borrow. There are 3 credit bureaus, this is just one of the ratings. Mahendra did say this was likely to happen.

Sold ARR

ARR 's  earnings per share listed  at $-.14 today. I had to look on the special charts to find this under company events:  earnings and dividends.  ARR earnings per share has not been listed in the news even though the earnings date passed.  Something is wrong here, Im not risking it with my money. If anyone has any insight on this let me know--leave a message. Usually when these REITs have an earnings announcement they list everything in detail with earnings per share in the news column right on the stock page.Most people would not know to look where I did to find this, to me this kind of looks like the cat's crap hidden in the corner where no-one can see it.  It is 4:18 central time and I see nothing listing earnings per share. I sold the remaining ARR I had after hours at $7.35.

I replaced some of the ARR holdings I had with CMO. They are paying out what they make and they have been around longer. They also hold adjustable mortgages which may perform better if interest rates go up. I do not recommend putting all of your funds into any stocks right now, a safe alternative is JASBX a short term bond related mutual fund. You must keep the cash in there for 3 months or you pay $50 fee. Otherwize there is no buy or sell fee.

I tried leaving a comment about the ARR EPS on the Yahoo finance message board for ARR and was immediately deleted. I tried again and couldnt leave a second response to another persons inquiry. There is something going on here! I called Etrade and they agreed something isnt right. He agreed that the earnings were -$.14 and he saw what I wrote here and agreed I am not out of line with my statement.

More insider buys for CIM:   http://investor.chimerareit.com/ShowFile.aspx?Output=XML&KeyFile=11568886&Format=XML   There are other insider buys as well.Over $500,000  worth total were bought recently. Could it be that CIM is ready to turn around. The net asset value is $3.08, the book value is $3.35. I noticed when ARR and other companies took a nose-dive this morning that CIM barely went down at all.

NASDAQ down 10% on week

Mahendra said this was coming but I didnt check his website in time. he said buy back into metals and stock in September. He sais 2012 will see big gains on the markets. Fundamentally the REIT sector has no problems but fear is driving the prices down. Unemployment is not up so I do not foresee  extra defaults on mortgages but if things get worse that could happen.  All of the REITs are down but not as much as Ford or the general market. Silver dropped 6% yesterday and is down over 1% today. The dollar is stronger just like in 2008.

New REIT in offering MTGE

Tomorrow Aug, 4 MTGE will begin trading on the NASDAQ at $20 per share. 8 million shares will go out on the market to invest in agency , non agency securities and related investments. The name of the company is American Capital mortgage Investment  Corp., it has a similar logo as AGNC and the address is I think in the same building. The logo looked so similar that i thought AGNC was doing an offering but I do not expect such an offering quite yet from AGNC or the other REITs. It seems ARR is doing the best of the list- I would expect an offering there first but they had one kind of recently. To contact MTGE call 301-968-9220. MTGE will be available on Etrade accounts tomorrow morning starting at $20 per share.

REITs did well today as did silver. 

IVR

IVR is in a good position to handle higher interest rates but if rates were to fall it would further deteriorate their book value which already is down 9% to $19.35. CMO and CIM has some similar investments and they are also down today. 

Vote Democrat next time!

They put all of these Republicans in office recently and we got gridlock. Emanuel Cleaver of Missouri called the recent action " A sugar coated Satan sandwich"  It was either this or the economy would be thoroughly trashed.  There will be cuts on education and other programs that help the middle class but no new ways to raise revenue. The Republicans just refuse to let the wealthy pay any tax. This comment is being written at just past noon on Aug. 2 2011 but we need to remember this on election day.Last week  REIT markets were down every day because of this and yesterday AGNC went up 3%+ before the market opened just as all the REITs did. Some of you lost a lot of money because you had to sell worrying that the arguement would drag on and do permanent damage. I didnt sell my core earners but I reduced my risk and was concerned about the future, I did lose some money on what I sold. If you own a REIT you better vote for Obama next term and do not vote for anymore Republicans. These people dragged this on while our investments suffered as a result. 

3:05 central time

Debt fears in Europe made markets fall:

NASDAQ  2669.24   -75.37  or - 2.75%

DJIA         11866.77  -265.72    -2.19%

AGNC       $28.49      -.54          -1.86%

IVR            $19.68      -.51          -2.53%

ARR           $7.52        -.01          -.13%

CIM            $3.13        +.02         +.6%

Silver          $40.79     +1.53       +3.7%

Gold           $1656       +36.20     +2.1%

$$index       74.446      +.184      +.24%

Video--description of last week:  http://www.youtube.com/embed/2YDqS6oMyfw?rel=0

Insider buy at IVR

http://www.snl.com/irweblinkx/doc.aspx?IID=4209142&DID=13112770     Williams, Neil bought 574 IVR on 2011--7-29.

Last time IVR was at this price the earnings wes $.77 a share, the recent earnings was $.99 per share. I think this stock is undervalued. AGNC and IVR are down over 1% but ARR is up one cent. CIM reported earnings of $.14 missing by $.01. The share price is at $3.13. They have not voted yet on the debt ceiling but news is due to come out any time now.