Daniel Yuhasz   Apr 16, 2013 05:21PM GMT

It is a currency war. When interest rates even start to go up then the dollar will be in trouble. Silver will go up but there will not be much warning. When a wild animal is in trouble it fights the hardest. The catholic church may be in the same situation as the Dollar. Both will go down hard and stocks will likely follow. I expect the stock market crash to begin in 2016 and stocks will reach record highs in 2014 maybe 2015. The Elite is struggling to hold power and they can manipulate the markets and people are fearful and computers make trades faster. I expect a 50% or more correction In stocks then we can get back in the markets in 2017. The coasts will flood and there will be earthquakes to add to the problems. The next 2 years will be good for stocks but there will always be some volatility. Silver will be unprofitable for a year or so then in 2014 it should start to go up. Now is the time to accumulate real silver but don't buy on borrowed money or play the markets. Be careful with margins with stocks as well but there is money to be made. I wouldn't short silver either even if everyone else is. buy in small quantities on a regular basis and buy small denominations and be careful of Chinese fake coins. Constitutional silver is holding value pretty well in this bear run and can be hard to find at times. I think dimes would be a good way to go but even dimes are being counterfeited.

 

Physical silver hard to find again

It is getting hard to buy physical silver just like 2008. Many bullion places are out of 90% silver. Here is an article:  http://www.deviantinvestor.com/3224/silver-prices-defy-the-law-of-supply-and-demand/

I still recommend buying dimes from before 1964 but I would avoud the ETFs for now. If you do have to buy an etf get PSLV.  Do not leverage silver or buy contracts.

REITs are recovering and AGNC should announce dividends in the next 2 weeks. I think they will hold the $1.25 dividend.

Here is another article of interest. http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/content/en/mineweb-independent-viewpoint?oid=180501&sn=Detail

Is silver at the bottom?

Yesterday I sold all of my AGNC and bought PSLV with the proceeds. I left enough margin to take another drop in silver without having a call. I am glad I sold the AGNC because today it is down 1.6%. Silver is up a little. I bought in at 29.95 (11.828) as PSLV and it is 30.16 now.($11.895) The markets are difficult to navigate. Dividend stocks seem to be getting hit the hardest as well as metals. Many think silver is being manipulated by big business, I am seeing comments on Forex about it as well as other articles. The Republicans refuse to let the wealthy pay tax. If the company does not make money they dont get taxed. Public programs will have to be cut or our money will be devalued; there is no money. We cant spend without having income. Public opinion is with the President, if Republicans want to be in office next term they better make a compromise.

$1.25 Dividend for AGNC

At 6:37pm AGNC ( American Capital Agency) is up after market after announcing dividend. The second half of December will be better than the first half. They will resolve the Fiscal Cliff and silver and stock will go back up. Chart is from Etrade. I suspect next yeat AGNC will pay $1 per quarter but will continue to raise the book value. The book value is $32.49 so we are below book value here. This will go up a lot when the Fiscal Cliff is resolved plus we have the dividend run up.

PSLV closed at $12.76 but is at 12.81 at 6:46.Live chart on Forex (silver) is $32.33.  Keep buying silver, this is a good deal. Silver will outpace gold in 2013.

Time to buy REITs

REIT stocks such as AGNC, ARR, MTGE, and other dividend stocks are responding to better news on negotiations about the Fiscal cliff.
At 1:20 pm Here are the prices and the book values:
                                               Book value:
AGNC   $30.91                        32.49
ARR      $ 6.79                         $7.91
MTGE   $24.22                        22.08
  ( non- REIT)                                         Net asset value:
PSEC    $10.38                           10.88   
GNT      $14.27                          13.42

The FED is bidding up the mortgage backed securities which tends to raise book value of the REITs but interest rates cause pre-payments which reduces earnings. This should cause the stock to hold value despite lower dividends. The stocks may actually go up. I expect PSEC to go up as well, they had a favorable quarterly report.

Insiders have been buying AGNC and ARR stock in the last 2 or 3 days. I think we have seen the bottom of the REIT market.

PSLV offering

Today after the close PSLV did an offering. They are buying more silver bars so they can issue more shares. PSLV often trades above Net Assett Value so the aftermarket price is down to $13.13. The NAV is $12.47. Silver was up today but the gains of the day will be lost due to the offering and I suspect the open tomorrow will be somewhere around $13.13 plus any larger move in silver if there is one. Take this as an opportunity to buy more because Sprott seems to buy just before silver goes up. The last offering was in the summer when silver hit the low for the year. This will take more silver off the market for the long term which is bullish for something there is a limited quantity of.
  
   The RNDY stock will not do well, they had a poor earnings and will have to cut the dividend in half. I took the money out and put it into silver- that is how I found out about the offering in PSLV.

PSEC has a good earnings report with extra income to both pay the dividend and reinvest some into more investments.  The book value is up $.05 from last quarter to $10.88. They closed at $10.58 but was trading at $10.64 after market.

AGNC is up .72% to $30.95; most REITS seemed to go up today.

Silver is $32.41 at 7:41 pm Gold is 1734.95.

Bad day in markets

All stocks were down except FNMA which was up 9% due to a profitable quarter. There are fears of gridlock between Republicans and democrats on the budget and taxes. There are also the Euro debt problems. It is a good time to buy silver, gold and stock. Silver will outperform gold and 2013 will be a good year for markets. All portfolios should have silver or gold or both.
   I recommend silver dimes for bullion and PSLV for silver in your brockerage account. Be careful about buying larger denominations of silver such as bars or silver dollars because China is counterfeiting bars and larger and older coins that have larger values. I also recommend avoiding numismatic coins because you will pay extra for the rarity and may not get that back. Jewelry generally is not a bullion investment; always be aware what you are paying per ounce and where spot is before buying.
   A nice gold related stock which I already hold is GNT, a Gebelli Closed End Fund. They pay a 10% annual  dividend and the pay is monthly. Much of what they trade in is gold and natural resources. This is not a speculative play, it is better held for the dividends. GGN is related to GNT and pays similar dividend based on gold and natural resources.
       PSEC is also a nice monthly payer with a 11% annual dividend. They recently had an offering a few days ago plus down again today.PSEC is not gold related; they are something like a BDC or closed end fund that works with loans to businesses.They are at a good entry point.
   REIT stocks have been down lately because of refinancing fears and I think the better ones will eventually turn around. I do not know how far they will go down but some are buying their shares back to keep values from dropping so much. AGNC is in my opinion the best run of the mortgage REITS and they have a book value of $32.49 but closed at $30.73 today. Book values are up but earning are down. I think AGNC and MTGE are a good value to enter now but maybe as part of a portfolio of unrelated stocks.
   An interesting stock to buy in small amounts is a grocery stock called RNDY or Roundys which is based in Milwaukee. They report earnings tomorrow after the close. They have paid a $.23 dividend in the past but the stock is down from the $10 range to $5.44 today with a book value of $5.61. RNDY may be down due to competition with Walmart but they have a superior brand called Our Family as well as they own Marianos stores which is premium quality like Whole Foods.
    As I have said before I believe oil and car gas will go down in price so I do not recommend investing in gas or oil.  Interest rates will also stay low; between these two people will have more money to spend and employment should improve.