Re-post of last year as I said I would.

Tuesday, August 2, 2011

Vote Democrat next time!

They put all of these Republicans in office recently and we got gridlock. Emanuel Cleaver of Missouri called the recent action " A sugar coated Satan sandwich"  It was either this or the economy would be thoroughly trashed.  There will be cuts on education and other programs that help the middle class but no new ways to raise revenue. The Republicans just refuse to let the wealthy pay any tax. This comment is being written at just past noon on Aug. 2 2011 but we need to remember this on election day.Last week  REIT markets were down every day because of this and yesterday AGNC went up 3%+ before the market opened just as all the REITs did. Some of you lost a lot of money because you had to sell worrying that the arguement would drag on and do permanent damage. I didnt sell my core earners but I reduced my risk and was concerned about the future, I did lose some money on what I sold. If you own a REIT you better vote for Obama next term and do not vote for anymore Republicans. These people dragged this on while our investments suffered as a result. 

3:05 central time

Debt fears in Europe made markets fall:

NASDAQ  2669.24   -75.37  or - 2.75%

DJIA         11866.77  -265.72    -2.19%

AGNC       $28.49      -.54          -1.86%

IVR            $19.68      -.51          -2.53%

ARR           $7.52        -.01          -.13%

CIM            $3.13        +.02         +.6%

Silver          $40.79     +1.53       +3.7%

Gold           $1656       +36.20     +2.1%

$$index       74.446      +.184      +.24%

Video--description of last week:  http://www.youtube.com/embed/2YDqS6oMyfw?rel=0

Why I have PSLV

Just before the recent rise in silver prices I bought PSLV (The Sprott Fund) because I felt that the bottom of the market had been passed.  There is to much talk of scandal with big bankers shorting silver. I presume they are using SLV to short the market. You cannot short PSLV. I do not know for sure but it almost seems more silver is being ( or was) shorted than what exists. It took a month or more for Sprott to finally get his silver for PSLV. They had an offering in the mid part of the summer. I saw that the NAV or net assett value was was as close to closing prices as it ever has been at around - 2.5% above NAV. PSLV traded 15% to 20% higher than NAV when silver was at $48 2011.  With PSLV there is physical silver stored in Canada and it seems there is more certainty your shares of silver are actually backed by silver bars in PSLV's possession. If we have a run on physical silver I will have less to worry about with the Sprott fund PSLV.  I also do not have to store it in my house and it is easy to sell. I saved a watchlist of my silver using both PSLV and SLV on the day I bought the PSLV. I am 1.29 % ahead by using PSLV because it it is worth more than NAV now. (PSLV outperformed SLV which is a bonus for me) When they do offerings they push the price closer to NAV but that is when they buy more silver. They also did it in January and the price dropped something like 10% one day because of the offering. As NAV goes up further past NAV this is a risk- that there could be an offering. I bought it right after an offering though so Im probably Ok for a while. For those who want silver bullion without the risk of theft I do suggest PSLV over SLV. SLV is a bigger outfit with heavier volume than PSLV but the big banks are playing there and I cant tell where their silver is that the shares represent. If there arises a problem with availability of silver bullion I feel safer with PSLV.
      Silver could be $37 in October. Perhaps it could reach record highs next year. It will outpace gold and it has been.

Spasm for silver shorts

The bull market for stocks and silver has began. This will last until 2015.On Friday Bernaki opened his mouth and silver dropped some but the tongue moved and silver went up over 4%. This is only due to jaw jacking, nothing has been done yet but QE-3 looks likely now.  Silver outpaced gold as I expected and this trend will continue. Stocks will hit record highs. Have fun everybody, this bull market will be a once in a lifetime experience. REIT stock seems to also be performing well except CIM.
   MTGE and AGNC had lower earnings last quarter but AGNC has money in reserve. Dividends will soon be announced by both. I expect another $1.25 dividend to be announced by AGNC any day now. 

Insider Buy in AGNC

Gary Kain, the president of AGNC, bought 20,000 AGNC on Oct. 7th 2012. This guy frequently buys at oppurtune times. He also paid $32.75 so he hit the bottom of the market. AGNC took a loss for the quarter this time.

Silver margins reduced by 11%

Last year they were raising them now they must see silver as less risky. They are willing to loan you more of their money to buy silver now. China has been buying gold lately, just in big enough quantities to stay under the radar, South Korea buying also. The bankers seem to think gold is on its way up.

ARR does offering tonight

ARR has dropped ro $7.46 after hours from the $7.70 close.  They are selling 50 million shares of common stock. I think they have had 9 offerings this last year.

AGNC and FTR

AGNC has been doing very well lately but I do notice some insider sells recently made. The earnings comes out today after the close. Silver is kind of neutral the last few days. There is reported to be more shorted than exists by some commentators. They have to eventually buy it back or else take delivery. I do not know if we just simply do not understand how the market works or if some kind of an accident with silver will eventually occurr. Obviously they do not want us to understand how it works but I do not see how you can short all of the shares of something. I wonder what a short squeeze would be like in silver?  Be careful trading the ETFs especially SLV. Also  be careful with the physical because someone could steal it on you.
   FTR is one of those stocks that seems to have hit bottom and is going back up. They made $.08 cents a share or 2 cents over expectations. They also seem to be doing a lot of contracts that indicate future growth. They suffered from some loss of business but seem to havce bought some contracts from Verizon. I got FTR at $3.68 and it is $4.37 now in the afternoon. It still may go up more. FTR also has a 10.5% dividend that they just declared a few days ago.