The S and P lowered the US credit rating from AAA to AA+ between midnight and 1am saturday morning on Aug. 6th. This could cause bond rates to go up. This may make money more expensive to borrow. There are 3 credit bureaus, this is just one of the ratings. Mahendra did say this was likely to happen.
Friday, August 5, 2011
Sold ARR
ARR 's earnings per share listed at $-.14 today. I had to look on the special charts to find this under company events: earnings and dividends. ARR earnings per share has not been listed in the news even though the earnings date passed. Something is wrong here, Im not risking it with my money. If anyone has any insight on this let me know--leave a message. Usually when these REITs have an earnings announcement they list everything in detail with earnings per share in the news column right on the stock page.Most people would not know to look where I did to find this, to me this kind of looks like the cat's crap hidden in the corner where no-one can see it. It is 4:18 central time and I see nothing listing earnings per share. I sold the remaining ARR I had after hours at $7.35.
I replaced some of the ARR holdings I had with CMO. They are paying out what they make and they have been around longer. They also hold adjustable mortgages which may perform better if interest rates go up. I do not recommend putting all of your funds into any stocks right now, a safe alternative is JASBX a short term bond related mutual fund. You must keep the cash in there for 3 months or you pay $50 fee. Otherwize there is no buy or sell fee.
I tried leaving a comment about the ARR EPS on the Yahoo finance message board for ARR and was immediately deleted. I tried again and couldnt leave a second response to another persons inquiry. There is something going on here! I called Etrade and they agreed something isnt right. He agreed that the earnings were -$.14 and he saw what I wrote here and agreed I am not out of line with my statement.
More insider buys for CIM: http://investor.chimerareit.com/ShowFile.aspx?Output=XML&KeyFile=11568886&Format=XML There are other insider buys as well.Over $500,000 worth total were bought recently. Could it be that CIM is ready to turn around. The net asset value is $3.08, the book value is $3.35. I noticed when ARR and other companies took a nose-dive this morning that CIM barely went down at all.
NASDAQ down 10% on week
Mahendra said this was coming but I didnt check his website in time. he said buy back into metals and stock in September. He sais 2012 will see big gains on the markets. Fundamentally the REIT sector has no problems but fear is driving the prices down. Unemployment is not up so I do not foresee extra defaults on mortgages but if things get worse that could happen. All of the REITs are down but not as much as Ford or the general market. Silver dropped 6% yesterday and is down over 1% today. The dollar is stronger just like in 2008.
Wednesday, August 3, 2011
New REIT in offering MTGE
Tomorrow Aug, 4 MTGE will begin trading on the NASDAQ at $20 per share. 8 million shares will go out on the market to invest in agency , non agency securities and related investments. The name of the company is American Capital mortgage Investment Corp., it has a similar logo as AGNC and the address is I think in the same building. The logo looked so similar that i thought AGNC was doing an offering but I do not expect such an offering quite yet from AGNC or the other REITs. It seems ARR is doing the best of the list- I would expect an offering there first but they had one kind of recently. To contact MTGE call 301-968-9220. MTGE will be available on Etrade accounts tomorrow morning starting at $20 per share.
REITs did well today as did silver.
IVR
IVR is in a good position to handle higher interest rates but if rates were to fall it would further deteriorate their book value which already is down 9% to $19.35. CMO and CIM has some similar investments and they are also down today.
Tuesday, August 2, 2011
Vote Democrat next time!
They put all of these Republicans in office recently and we got gridlock. Emanuel Cleaver of Missouri called the recent action " A sugar coated Satan sandwich" It was either this or the economy would be thoroughly trashed. There will be cuts on education and other programs that help the middle class but no new ways to raise revenue. The Republicans just refuse to let the wealthy pay any tax. This comment is being written at just past noon on Aug. 2 2011 but we need to remember this on election day.Last week REIT markets were down every day because of this and yesterday AGNC went up 3%+ before the market opened just as all the REITs did. Some of you lost a lot of money because you had to sell worrying that the arguement would drag on and do permanent damage. I didnt sell my core earners but I reduced my risk and was concerned about the future, I did lose some money on what I sold. If you own a REIT you better vote for Obama next term and do not vote for anymore Republicans. These people dragged this on while our investments suffered as a result.
3:05 central time
Debt fears in Europe made markets fall:
NASDAQ 2669.24 -75.37 or - 2.75%
DJIA 11866.77 -265.72 -2.19%
AGNC $28.49 -.54 -1.86%
IVR $19.68 -.51 -2.53%
ARR $7.52 -.01 -.13%
CIM $3.13 +.02 +.6%
Silver $40.79 +1.53 +3.7%
Gold $1656 +36.20 +2.1%
$$index 74.446 +.184 +.24%
Video--description of last week: http://www.youtube.com/embed/2YDqS6oMyfw?rel=0
Insider buy at IVR
http://www.snl.com/irweblinkx/doc.aspx?IID=4209142&DID=13112770 Williams, Neil bought 574 IVR on 2011--7-29.
Last time IVR was at this price the earnings wes $.77 a share, the recent earnings was $.99 per share. I think this stock is undervalued. AGNC and IVR are down over 1% but ARR is up one cent. CIM reported earnings of $.14 missing by $.01. The share price is at $3.13. They have not voted yet on the debt ceiling but news is due to come out any time now.
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