Wednesday, October 31, 2012

Re-post of August 2, 2011

This man named Romney has been caught lieng to us already and we know it but yet people still support him. What is wrong with Americans who plan to vote for this guy?! Beware!Re-post of last year as I said I would.

Tuesday, August 2, 2011

Vote Democrat next time!

They put all of these Republicans in office recently and we got gridlock. Emanuel Cleaver of Missouri called the recent action " A sugar coated Satan sandwich"  It was either this or the economy would be thoroughly trashed.  There will be cuts on education and other programs that help the middle class but no new ways to raise revenue. The Republicans just refuse to let the wealthy pay any tax. This comment is being written at just past noon on Aug. 2 2011 but we need to remember this on election day.Last week  REIT markets were down every day because of this and yesterday AGNC went up 3%+ before the market opened just as all the REITs did. Some of you lost a lot of money because you had to sell worrying that the arguement would drag on and do permanent damage. I didnt sell my core earners but I reduced my risk and was concerned about the future, I did lose some money on what I sold. If you own a REIT you better vote for Obama next term and do not vote for anymore Republicans. These people dragged this on while our investments suffered as a result. 

3:05 central time
Debt fears in Europe made markets fall:
NASDAQ  2669.24   -75.37  or - 2.75%
DJIA         11866.77  -265.72    -2.19%
AGNC       $28.49      -.54          -1.86%
IVR            $19.68      -.51          -2.53%
ARR           $7.52        -.01          -.13%
CIM            $3.13        +.02         +.6%
Silver          $40.79     +1.53       +3.7%
Gold           $1656       +36.20     +2.1%
$$index       74.446      +.184      +.24%

Video--description of last week:  http://www.youtube.com/embed/2YDqS6oMyfw?rel=0

Monday, October 29, 2012

AGNC Earnings

The markets are closed today due to hurricane Sandy. AGNC put out the report at 3:00pm.  The new Book value is $32.49 which is a rise of $3.08 from last quarter. It closed at $32 last friday so it is below book value but trading was closed today.The FED buying  securities may be part of the reason for the rise in book value. So Bernaki deciding to buy may be the cause for at least part of the rise because he drove the prices up by entering the market.  Usually it trades about 10% over book value; it will be interesting what shares will do tomorrow especially since i have more than usual shares of AGNC in my portfolio.
The bad news is they only made $.25 per share. Apparently they sold something because they record a $3.98 comprehensive income. The have $1.52 carry-over from earlier quarters. They saved money for a 'rainy day' which is something other REITs have not done. I do believe AGNC will go up tomorrow but my guess is a good as anyones as to how high. I noticed Thomas Reuters reduced the AGNC rating from positive to neutral probably due to reduced earnings. if AGNC goes to its normal price range it could hit $35.73 or in the $35s somewhere. That would be a huge rise though; it might only go up 50 cents to a dollar because of the low earnings and fears of more bad quarters. It could catch up later if things look better for REITs in general. If the price does go back to $35 it may be in 2013 or late this year. A lot of people would have to buy,  and AGNC has a lot of shares, so I dont think the price will shoot to $35.50.  The management is doing a good job protecting our share value and this will not go un-noticed. Also AGNC has announced a 500 Million share purchase of its own shares which should raise prices some. NYL has also done this recently.
    Silver is $31.78 as of 4:36. I have noticed over the years that silver and AGNC have similar values. I think people are waiting for the elections to react to things and it will be sort of slow for the next week.
    I do feel that President Obama has done a good job and that Romney would be a bad choice because Romney does not seem to have a real plan- he only wants to dismantle everything that Pres. Obama has done and there is no plan to replace everything with. The big business men who Romney supports will be free to do whatever they want because Romney has no real plan. 

Friday, October 26, 2012

Silver prices and the dollar

Many nations are no longer using the US Dollar to do their transactions. The no longer chose to be bullied into doing what America wants them to do even concerning Iran. India is using gold to buy oil from Iran. China is also working out their own deals with Iran without using Dollars. South American nations, China and India are coming together without America to work together. If nations stop usng the dollar then I expect some to begin selling the un-needed dollars on the international market which could depress the value of the dollar. Interest rates are being kept low for 2 reasons that I can see. One is to allow people in America to refinance their homes which will also allow more home buying and alleviate the slump in home prices. It will also save people money when they refinance leaving more cash to buy other things. Higher interest rates also have to be paid to the national debt so if they go up the US would have a much bigger bill to pay. Eventually interest rates will go up and if they do, combined with the lower interest in the dollar, it could spell a large drop in the value of the dollar. If the US defaults on the debt the Elite will try to step in and control things claiming that we owe them a lot but perhaps they want to have America and other nations owe them so they will have power. People do not want these bankers and business men running America; they may lose out completely but America may have to start over again from scratch building a new economy. The most wealthy of the world are buying the debt of many nations hoping they will get control when they default. Most of the debt will never be paid back and there is no way it could be paid back unless the currency is devalued to next to nothing which is basically the same as not paying it back. If it is devalued those holding the currency will lose the value of the money they hold unless they get rid of their currency and buy land, silver or gold. This has to be done before interest rates begin to go up and before nations begin liquidating US dollars. I thnk this is a few years away but the fact that India and China are working out their own deals with each other and Iran is a sign not to be ignored. One way to disguise the drop in the dollar is to have oil go down in price. I do predict oil will go down in price significantly and not just for a month either. it will be a long term drop in price which will reduce the price of gas. Food will probably go up especially with the bad weather patterns but oil will go down to make up for some of it. Oil going down will disguise the drop in the dollar. Also lower interest rates will help people out in the real estate sector and working people will spend less on mortgages. These are quick fixes to repair the failing dollar, we will all appreciate them in coming months but years from now we still will have a huge debt that we cannot pay and the problem could come back to visit us in the future. It could come with a natural disaster or bad overseas news or time could just run out. I think 2015 to 2016 could be important years for the whole world.
    Gold and silver will be the antedotes to the collapsing currency systems and much money will flow into metals.  Any ETF that has real bars behind their stock will be good but some ETFs may or could fail. No portfolio should be without silver (and) or gold and no retirement account should be without it. People on government retirement should set aside some every month into metals-- not numismatic coins - but bullion. I recommend pre- 1964 dimes. Silver will outperform gold. I also recommend keeping some extra stock up food at home because when you see Americans fighting over the last X-box it is an indication how they would be if it was the last loaf of bread. I am not one of those who believe in the End of the world but unlike the Japanese America has a lot to learn about fear and spirituality- dispite there being a church on every corner we do not act like we know God. We will panic even on rumors. Have your necessities bought before hand. In the mean time enjoy the good economy before the storm.

Friday, October 12, 2012

REITs getting hit hard

This is due to prepayment risk due to refinancing. If someone pays off their balance when they refinance then the income of that security goes to 0 for income. Book values may rise due to Fed buying but with lower rates everyone is feared to refinance. If someone is buying something you make money on could it drive prices up for what you need to replace what is not earning anymore? 

Silver and gold are stable; they have taken a rest for a while from the fast rise in September. Obama would want oil down while Romney wants higher oil. The Republicans would like to see America financially collapse while Obama is in power and they have tried hard to hurt our economy in the last years. I believe Oil will significantly go down. Metals will go up in the long term.

Tuesday, October 9, 2012

Oil to come down significantly

Oil is quite high as of lately but it will come down going towards $30 a barrel. Do not invest in oil related energy. High oil would and has held back the economy and it's decrease will help the economy allowing stocks to rise. The fall of oil is related to the fall of the Iran currency. There could be instability in Iran. October is not a good month to buy extra stock or metals but they will not drop as much as oil. AGNC is down more today than ARR; they are down 1.73% (11:09am) while ARR is down .39%.  AGNC had a poor quarter last quarter and ARR is due for a dividend tomorrow. In the long term stocks and metals will continue up but Oil will not go up.

Monday, October 8, 2012

Re-post of last year as I said I would.

Tuesday, August 2, 2011

Vote Democrat next time!

They put all of these Republicans in office recently and we got gridlock. Emanuel Cleaver of Missouri called the recent action " A sugar coated Satan sandwich"  It was either this or the economy would be thoroughly trashed.  There will be cuts on education and other programs that help the middle class but no new ways to raise revenue. The Republicans just refuse to let the wealthy pay any tax. This comment is being written at just past noon on Aug. 2 2011 but we need to remember this on election day.Last week  REIT markets were down every day because of this and yesterday AGNC went up 3%+ before the market opened just as all the REITs did. Some of you lost a lot of money because you had to sell worrying that the arguement would drag on and do permanent damage. I didnt sell my core earners but I reduced my risk and was concerned about the future, I did lose some money on what I sold. If you own a REIT you better vote for Obama next term and do not vote for anymore Republicans. These people dragged this on while our investments suffered as a result. 

3:05 central time
Debt fears in Europe made markets fall:
NASDAQ  2669.24   -75.37  or - 2.75%
DJIA         11866.77  -265.72    -2.19%
AGNC       $28.49      -.54          -1.86%
IVR            $19.68      -.51          -2.53%
ARR           $7.52        -.01          -.13%
CIM            $3.13        +.02         +.6%
Silver          $40.79     +1.53       +3.7%
Gold           $1656       +36.20     +2.1%
$$index       74.446      +.184      +.24%

Video--description of last week:  http://www.youtube.com/embed/2YDqS6oMyfw?rel=0