Friday, May 11, 2012


I contacted a man named Gavin in Canada from the company that VPLM bought the patents. There is question in the VPLM message board about the validity of the trade. The patents do exist and 2 were described to me over the phone. I spent an hour looking for this information and yes the company does exist.
   The company is a Canadian Vancouver company called Digifonica; they last traded at $.04 in April. They had a $800,000 debt. The former Director was given the patents to sell to pay off the debt. Gavin thinks the patents were definitely worth a lot more than $800,000. Gavin knows the director of Digifonics.  Digifonics Gibraltar held the patents. 
here is a partial description of 2 of them:
1. "RBR" " Strong patent" very advanced technology
2.  Network Voip calls to GSM  network to Wi-Fi network

It looks like the patents were given to VPLM for shares of VPLM. The debt could likely be paid back at down  ( we speculated on) to  10% or 25% of the original loan. I have heard of this  done with credit cards. 
if I get more information I will post it on my blog. This information is from notes I took while on the phone.

My take on the transaction:  The patents are real and useful. Stock was given for the patents. The patents could make money for VPLM. I do not know when the shares would be sold but they do have a debt to pay.

Thursday, May 10, 2012

BMNM why it is down

BMNM has a good book value but are short $10 million dollars of which the recent earnings are a small fraction. They will not be paying dividends for a while but they are worth keeping an eye on for future quarters. Their book value is ok but the stock has very low volume.
  Silver still looks negative in some ways but there may be some kind of a rebound. I am more bullish on FNMA than silver. AGNC is also doing very well. I do believe real estate is recovering and will continue the second half of this year.

Wednesday, May 9, 2012

FNMA earns $2.72 Billion Bmnm a value too

Silver is down again today. I checked my email and got news that FNMA (Fannie Mae ) made 2.72 billion dollars this quarter and they do not need any more taxpayer money. This is the first time they made real money since 2007.I bought some right away and rode the market up to $.30 close. Watching the trade i see there are a lot of people perhaps like myself entering what may be a chance to ride the real estate recovery up. Basically I sold silver etf to buy FNMA. I put less money into FNMA than I had in silver but dont need to tie up as much money to get some decent exposure to a chance to make money. Mahendra Sharma was off on his predictions on silver and for June he is bearish but he seems to be right about FNMA. All of the REITs are outperforming silver right now. This is an election year and statistically speaking silver has gone down on election years. I still think that silver is oversold but I am more bullish on real estate. Bmnm or Bimini Capital has a book value of $.61 and is going for $.25 per share. Last year they had a hard year but their recent quarter is positive again. The volume is low but they could bring back the dividend if they get another positive quarter. The price is half of book value; it is certainly something to look into with a recovering real estate market.

Tuesday, May 8, 2012

Silver ETF oversold

This is an Etrade chart from around 9:30 am on May 8th 2012. Click the chart to enlarge it. Are we at the bottom?  It is as oversold as it was in December but the price is not as low as it went back then. It has been a rough year so far for silver traders. I do not think now is a good time to sell silver. I do realize it could go lower but on all accounts SLV is oversold. (SLV is 28.48 now )

Saturday, May 5, 2012

Silver and gold went up when the dollar went up and oil went down. Usually metals go opposite of the dollar and along with oil. At the beginning of Friday silver did drop but it quickly recovered and went up. The general markets were down 1 to 2%. This is kind of bullish for silver and gold.
Silver is at $30.34 (Kitco) + $.27
Oil (WTI crude) is $98.59 down around $3
Dollar Index $79.60  +.32
Gold $1642.10  +6.30

Wednesday, May 2, 2012

Silver is still falling but i think the end is near for the drop. In mid May i think it will turn around. There are no short positions below $21. I do not think it will go more than $2 lower than it is. The dollar index is 79.185 at 10:21 am on May 2nd. It is up .46% today but may be done with the rise. It was over 81 in mid January so it is starting to go down. The second half of the year will be much better for silver than the first, now is a good time to enter the silver market. Mahendra was off on his predictions as far as timing but in the long run it will happen. He predicted silver to run to $42 by the end of May. I think it will turn around on or near the 18th of May and start going up.It will probably still go to $42 but a little later then correct some then resume up again for a new high. Basically both silver and gold are oversold (silver is at $30.53 and gold is at $1650.20 at11:04 AM) Silver will outpace gold in the rise. European markets seem to be pulling on our markets some but our markets seem to be rebounding today.
   AGNC puts out their quarterly report today after the markets close, I think they will do reasonably well. At 10:29 they are at $31.08 near record highs down a little on the day. I wouldnt want to buy at this level though. I got mine in the $27s range and a little at 29s. They are a good long term investment.  FNMA is at $.28 looks ok on the chart- it is not below the trend line so it seems to be on track. It just got to high earlier so it is still on an uptrend. It seems to be showing some strength in daily trades with some big volume sells met with adequate buyers. It seems people are interested and entering FNMA. IVR and ARR are a little weaker; they had a dividend haircut and their stock dropped. AGNC had the same haircut but they planned better and book value went up so no one was disappointed. AGNC also keeps some extra money aside for more stability. I am impressed with how AGNC manages their company. AGNC has even outperformed NLY which was down earlier this year but rebounded some but not as good of performance as AGNC. NLY had to have a similar dividend haircut but lost some stock value; NLY is the oldest REIT. All of these companies have different securities though and Im sure they are a challenge to manage; they all make money.

AGNC announced the earnings at like 3:03pm:  1st Quarter Earnings per share is $2.66; 29.06 net book value and $2.44 comprehensive income per share. This is much more than I expected. Last quarter was $.99 earnings per share. They paid a $1.25 dividend last quarter-- we just got it a few days ago. I bought 100 shares at $31.38 and it is at 31.50 now at 3:17pm. This is a very good earnings.  The book value increased $1.35 since last quarter.
After hours buy list:  You can see your purchase on this list-- the price is to $31.84 recently. 31.38 is about where it would be at 1.08 times new book value but they have extra money to boot.

NLY has a $.92 EPS which is good news; up from the 50s and 60s of previous quarters but in line with a year ago.